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MBS RECAP: New Week, New Sense of Urgency
Jun 14 2021, 4:19PM

The new week wasted no time in differentiating itself from the previous week as bonds sold off somewhat briskly this morning.  This was a known risk given the motivation for the recent gains.  Specifically, short-covering rallies leave themselves open to these little reversals.  The bigger question of "where do we go from here" may depend on the incoming data and especially Wednesday afternoon's Fed announcement/forecasts.  Despite the early selling pressure, bonds offered some reassurance in the afternoon by holding calmly under 1.50%.

Econ Data / Events
  • Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm

  • Consumer Sentiment 86.4 vs 84 f'cast
    1yr Inflation expectations down 0.6%
    5yr Inflation expectations down 0.2%

Market Movement Recap
09:22 AM

Roughly unchanged overnight, then slightly weaker after the 8:20am CME open.  10yr yields less than 2bps higher at 1.47%.  UMBS 2.0 down an eighth.

09:54 AM

1.47% gave way to a classic mini-snowball selling spree.  Yields are quickly up to 1.49% and 2.0 UMBS are down a quarter point.  

12:59 PM

A bit more negative momentum as Treasuries continue to drift weaker following the technical break of 1.47.  MBS down more than a quarter of a point.

04:17 PM

It's been a reassuring couple of hours as yields hold calmly under 1.50%.  MBS are off their lows as well, even if only slightly. No rhyme or reason to the gains apart from the morning's selling having run its course.

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
UMBS 2.0
100-29 : -0-10
10 YR
1.4970 : +0.0350
Pricing as of 6/14/21 4:20PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
12:45PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing
9:49AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Under Pressure as Treasuries Break Technical Ceiling

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Jun 15
8:30 Core Producer Prices YY (%)* May 4.8 4.1
8:30 Producer Prices (%) May 0.6 0.6
8:30 Retail Sales (%)* May -0.7 0.0
8:30 NY Fed Manufacturing Jun 22.60 24.30
9:15 Industrial Production (%) May 0.6 0.7
10:00 NAHB housing market indx Jun 83 83
10:00 Business Inventories (% ) Apr -0.1 0.3

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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