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MBS RECAP: Bonds Hold Their Ground After Weaker Data
May 14 2021, 4:32PM

Wednesday's CPI data was akin to some passionate political orator making a case for the country to go to war against low rates.  Yesterday's 30yr bond auction stepped in with a "not so fast" counterpoint, and now today's Retail Sales data gives us hope that cooler heads will prevail.  Bottom line, as of this morning mid-week drama looks to have given way to the same old trading range that's been intact since April 7th.

Econ Data / Events
  • Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm

  • Retail Sales 0.0 vs 1.0 f'cast, 10.7 prev

  • Consumer Sentiment 82.8 vs 90.4 f'cast, 88.3 prev
    inflation expectations
    (1y)  4.6 vs 3.4 prev
    (5y)  3.1 vs 2.7 prev

Market Movement Recap
08:52 AM

Flat in Asia.  Modestly stronger in Europe, and now flat (at slightly stronger levels) after Retail Sales.  10yr yields down 2.2bps and MBS ALMOST up an eighth.  

02:02 PM

Extremely slow and mostly sideways.  Bonds are off their best levels, but still in stronger territory on the day.  10yr yields are 1.7bps lower at 1.642 and MBS are 1-2 ticks (0.03-0.06) higher.  

03:58 PM

Modest gains in the past hour or two with yields inching back toward their best levels (10's currently down 2.7bps at 1.632).  MBS aren't quite as close to their morning highs, but have also improved a bit since the last update with 2.5 coupons up an eighth on the day at 103-14 (103.54).


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.5
103-15 : +0-05
Treasuries
10 YR
1.6320 : -0.0360
Pricing as of 5/14/21 4:32PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
8:39AM  :  Little-Changed After Weaker Retail Sales

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
John G. Tassios NMLS: 114027  :  "Supply Demand imbalances occurring due to supply chain interruptions, workers staying home instead of seeking work, and various U.S. states & countries still partially shut. FED policy cannot adjust this. Market forces will auto correct supply demand imbalances once supply chains open up fully. Already beginning to see consumers balking at unusually higher prices on goods and services, and waiting for future lower prices before purchasing. I had 2 smaller home builders tell me they will halt home construction until lumber prices come down and workers return to seeking work again. I'm sure this will be repeated in other areas, which will begin to slowly reduce prices on raw materials, goods , services will adjust accordingly. just my @2cents"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, May 14
8:30 Retail Sales (%)* Apr 0.0 1.0 9.8
8:30 Export prices mm (%) Apr 0.8 0.6 2.1
8:30 Import prices mm (%) Apr 0.7 0.6 1.2
9:15 Industrial Production (%) Apr 0.7 1.0 1.4
10:00 1yr Inflation Outlook (%) May 4.6 3.4
10:00 5yr Inflation Outlook (%) May 3.1 2.7
10:00 Consumer Sentiment May 82.8 90.4 88.3
10:00 Business Inventories (% ) Mar 0.3 0.3 0.5

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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