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MBS RECAP: Uneventful Month-End Friday. Next Week Could Be Different
Apr 30 2021, 6:08PM

Bonds recovered modestly but respectably after starting the session at slightly weaker levels.  MBS outperformed throughout.  PCE inflation data was of little consequence (no surprise considering the as-expected result), but yields did seem to pay some attention to Chicago PMI at 9:45am (Chicago PMI at 72.1 vs 65.3). After months of complacency, this suggests bonds are starting to tune into data a bit more.  As such, next week's slew of big-ticket reports (culminating in nonfarm payrolls) could make for bigger moves.

Econ Data / Events
  • Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm

  • Core PCE Inflation 1.8 vs 1.8 f'cast, 1.4 prev

  • Employment Cost Index 0.9 vs 0.7 f'cast, 0.7 prev

  • Chicago PMI 72.1 vs 65.3 f'cast

  • Consumer Sentiment 88.3 vs 87.4 f'cast
    - 1yr inflation expectations down 0.3
    - 5yr inflation expectations unchanged

Market Movement Recap
08:32 AM

Very flat overnight with no real volatility in Asia or Europe.  Starting domestic session almost perfectly unchanged, without any immediate reaction to the 8:30am econ data.

10:07 AM

A bit of weakness since the 9:30am NYSE open.  Additional losses after strong Chicago PMI at 945am, and hawkish comments from Fed's Kaplan at 10am.  Pushing back now though.  10yr and MBS still effectively unchanged.

01:43 PM

More incremental gains with 10yr yields down 1bp now at 1.63% and 2.5 UMBS up an eighth.  No rhyme or reason apart from month-end tradeflows.  Very flat since the 10am rally.

06:07 PM

Bonds closed at/near their best levels of the day after a very uneventful afternoon.  

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
UMBS 2.5
103-24 : +0-06
10 YR
1.6260 : -0.0140
Pricing as of 4/30/21 6:08PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
8:59AM  :  Unchanged After PCE Inflation Data

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Apr 30
8:30 Employment costs (%) Q1 0.9 0.7 0.7
8:30 Outlays (consumer spending) (%) Mar 4.2 4.1 -1.0
8:30 Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%)* Mar 1.8 1.8 1.4
9:45 Chicago PMI * Apr 72.1 65.3 66.3
10:00 Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Apr 3.4 3.7
10:00 Consumer Sentiment (ip) Apr 88.3 87.4 86.5
10:00 Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Apr 2.7 2.7

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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