- The absence of stronger gains this week means bonds remain inside their short-term uptrend (see chart)

- 100% focus on UMBS 2.5 coupon (why?)

- "lower high" yield yesterday and again so far today (keeps hope alive), but...

- Conversely, no strong commitment to rallying so far this week.

- Net effect: sideways and range-bound for now--perhaps even until Thursday's Powell appearance or possibly even Friday's jobs report

If yields can manage to rally below the lower yellow line and close in stronger territory for 2 consecutive days, it would present a strong case for the end of this short-term uptrend.  That sort of bullish breakout typically presents 2 choices: carve out a new, sideways range or begin a new, short-term rally trend.  The latter would probably require some assistance from a friendly Fed, weaker data, or other significant fundamental development.

20210302 open1.png

Today's scheduled econ data is relatively unimportant.  Traders are feeling out the new range and very likely waiting for stronger inspiration from the bigger-ticket events in the 2nd half of the week.  


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.5
103-24 : -0-03
Treasuries
10 YR
1.4360 : -0.0100
Pricing as of 3/2/21 9:32AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Mar 02
9:45 ISM-New York index Feb 818.2