Bond yields have been surging higher in February with last week bringing the sharpest losses so far.  The move has surprised more than a few market participants.  To be sure, the pace of selling doesn't seem to fit with the economic reality at first glance.  Moreover, the higher yields have gone, the more expectations have increased for a technical correction.  In other words, we have to find a ceiling soon, even if it's only temporary.  It looked like we found that ceiling in the middle of last week, but Friday saw yields break to new highs.  Now as the new week begins, we have more new highs (overnight) and more new hope for a ceiling bounce as bonds are rallying early.

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On the data front, this week's headliners include Durable Goods, Core PCE, and the 5/7yr Treasury auctions.  With the exception of Wednesday's 5yr auction, all of that happens on the last 2 days of the week.  Incidentally, those are also the last 2 trading days of the month.  That means we could see a glut of trading momentum in one direction or the other, depending on how the rest of the week trades and how much "month-end" trading is left to be done.  


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.0
101-17 : -0-06
Treasuries
10 YR
1.3470 : +0.0020
Pricing as of 2/22/21 10:13AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Monday, Feb 22
10:00 Leading index chg mm (%) Jan 0.5 0.3
Tuesday, Feb 23
9:00 CaseShiller 20 yy (% ) Dec 9.9 9.1
9:00 CaseShiller 20 mm SA (%) Dec 1.3 1.4
9:00 Monthly Home Price yy (%) Dec 11.0
9:00 Monthly Home Price mm (%) Dec 1.0
10:00 Consumer confidence * Feb 90.0 89.3
Wednesday, Feb 24
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 299.5
7:00 MBA Refi Index w/e 4337.0
10:00 New Home Sales (%) (%)* Jan 2.1 1.6
10:00 New Home Sales (ml) Jan 0.855 0.842
13:00 5-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 61
Thursday, Feb 25
8:30 GDP Prelim (%) Q4 4.2 4.0
8:30 Durable goods (%)* Jan 1.1 0.5
8:30 Core CapEx (%)* Jan 0.7 0.7
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 838 861
10:00 Pending Sales Index Jan 125.5
10:00 Pending Home Sales (%) Jan 0.0 -0.3
13:00 7-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 62
Friday, Feb 26
8:30 Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%)* Jan 1.4 1.5
9:45 Chicago PMI * Feb 61.1 63.8
10:00 Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Feb 2.7
10:00 Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Feb 3.3
10:00 Consumer Sentiment (ip) Feb 76.5 76.2