Register or Sign in        Email This Page     Link To This Page    
Visit MND at MBA in NYC!
28,899
# of Forum Posts
Subscribe
 Email Alerts
Receive an Email Alert each time a story is posted to MBS Commentary.
-
 RSS
Bottom Right Default
State Name: Connecticut
State Name underscore: Connecticut
State Name dash: Connecticut
State Name lower underscore: connecticut
State Name lower dash: connecticut
State Name lower: connecticut
State Abbreviation: CT
State Abbreviation Lower: ct
Fed Minutes Today at 2pm EST
Follow the markets live as the Fed Minutes are released at 2pm EST today.
Thomson Reuters MBS Aggregations
Gain access to a powerful search engine and most accurate and timely mortgage industry originator and servicer rankings.
MBS Basics:   Part 1  |  Part 2  |  Part 3  |  Part 4  |  The Gut Flop
It's Fed Day. Are you ready?
If you've been following the MBS Commentary, you know what a big deal this afternoon could be. Markets have been preparing for it for weeks and MBS Live members have been on top of those movements every step of the way.
This afternoon, when markets are convulsing mere milliseconds after the Fed Announcement, MBS Live members will know what's going on before anyone else. The accuracy and speed of our real-time price stream and alerts is unmatched.
Here's a purchase code to take the free trial for 4 weeks with no credit card required.

Share:
  •  Email    Link Here
  • Widgets

MBS RECAP: CPI and 10yr Auction Make a Case For a Near-Term Rate Ceiling
Feb 10 2021, 3:23PM

NOTE: charts look weak this morning despite strong MBS due to THE ROLL. See the 2nd half of the Day Ahead for another useful chart.  Bonds started strong thanks to a weak CPI report.  Actually bonds were ready to sell today, but CPI reversed the losses to the tune of roughly 3bps in 10yr yields.  The 10yr Treasury auction--which might have been today's big market mover if not for CPI--posted unobjectionable stats and bonds went on to hold the day's gains through the 3pm close.  With these events out of the way, the ability to hold in the 1.13% range is a vote in favor of a near-term ceiling at the recent highs of 1.19+.  MBS underperformed, but rates nonetheless fell to their lowest levels in more than a week.

Econ Data / Events
  • Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm

  • Core Annual CPI 1.4 vs 1.5 f'cast, 1.6 prev

Market Movement Recap
08:50 AM

Flat to slightly weaker overnight in very quiet trading.  Weak CPI at 8:30am sparked a big (relative) rally in both Treasuries and MBS with 2.0 coupon up nearly an eighth of a point on the day now.  Just so we have the 'heads-up' in one more place, yes... MBS really are higher even though the chart looks like they aren't, because...

11:12 AM

Bonds pulling back a bit, led by EU bond market weakness, a bounce in stocks, and general hesitation ahead of the 10yr Treasury auction  at 1pm ET.  MBS are up only 2 ticks (.06) now at 103 after being up by 5 ticks (.19) at their best levels.  10yr down 1.3bps at 1.145% vs lows of 1.131% earlier.

01:21 PM

Decent stats at the 10yr auction and not much of a reaction.  Short-term win.  Bigger-picture loss (as it confirms traders are comfortable in this range).  More details in the update.

03:19 PM

No fuss for bonds, with yields near their lows right through the 3pm CME close.  All this despite a bounce back into positive territory for stocks.  Powell's reassurance on Fed accommodation may have been a factor, but it's hard to say considering bonds really haven't moved all afternoon.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.0
102-31 : +0-01
Treasuries
10 YR
1.1340 : -0.0230
Pricing as of 2/10/21 3:21PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
1:13PM  :  Deceptively Strong 10yr Auction; Not Much Reaction
11:58AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: On The Threshold of Reprice Risk Territory
8:43AM  :  Bonds Turn Green After CPI (And Why The Chart Doesn't Seem To Agree)

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matt Graham  :  "POWELL REPEATS WILL KEEP CURRENT PACE OF BOND-BUYING UNTIL SUBSTANTIAL FURTHER PROGRESS MADE TOWARD MAX EMPLOYMENT, PRICE STABILITY"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Feb 10
0:00 Roll Date - UMBS 30YR
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 318.8 334.6
7:00 MBA Refi Index w/e 4549.2 4746.2
8:30 Core CPI (Annual) (%)* Jan 1.4 1.5 1.6
10:00 Wholesale inventories mm (%) Dec 0.3 0.1 0.1
13:00 10-yr Note Auction (bl)* 41

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

Other Contributors


Share:
Discuss the MBS and Mortgage Markets on Our Streaming Dashboard
Discuss MBS and Mortgage Markets with Hundreds of Loan Officers on the MBS Live Streaming Dashboard.
  »Start a Two Week Risk Free Trial


Comments

Join Now or Login to Post Comments

 

More From MND

Mortgage Rates:
  • 30 Yr FRM 3.29%
  • |
  • 15 Yr FRM 2.64%
  • |
  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.40%
MBS Prices:
  • 30YR FNMA 4.5 108-16 (-0-08)
  • |
  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 110-21 (0-01)
  • |
  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 111-10 (-0-02)
Recent Housing Data:
  • Mortgage Apps 0.49%
  • |
  • Refinance Index 0.06%
  • |
  • Purchase Index 1.81%