With 10yr yields breaking the 1.075% technical floor on Monday, the bond market added evidence to the case for a move back to 1.0%.  Today's early gains make the evidence nearly overwhelming with yields less than half a basis point away at times.  With the Fed coming up this afternoon, it would only take a mildly stronger reaction to break the 1.0% floor

What happens after a break below 1.0% though?  The prevailing trend implies heavier resistance around 0.97-0.98%. Specifically, the lower boundary of the "trend channel" (yellow lines below) runs through .98 today.  It would require another fairly decent bond rally to get there, but it's not outside the realm of possibility.

20210127 open.png

Such a move could be a blessing or a curse.  If the trend keeps doing what it's been doing since August, a move to .97/.98 suggests a stronger possibility of another bounce, or at least another slow grind higher like the trading seen in Q4.

20210127 open2.png

The Fed announcement comes out at 2pm and Powell's press conference begins at 2:30pm.  As far as the Fed's current stance is concerned, we're more likely to see/hear market movers in the press conference, if at all.  Markets want reassurance (again!) that the Fed isn't even talking about tapering its asset purchases yet.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.0
103-17 : +0-05
Treasuries
10 YR
1.0030 : -0.0370
Pricing as of 1/27/21 9:40AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Jan 27
8:30 Core CapEx (%)* Dec 0.6 0.5
8:30 Durable goods (%)* Dec 0.9 1.0
14:00 FOMC rate decision (%)* N/A 0.125 0.125