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MBS RECAP: Late Day Reversal For Bonds After Trump Stimulus Threat
Oct 6 2020, 4:12PM

Today wasn't going too terribly poorly for the bond market in the first place even though 10yr yields were technically confirming a negative move up and out of the recent range.  The afternoon complicated the outlook as Trump's Tweets on Stimulus threw both sides of the market for a loop.  Today's video discusses whether or not this is enough to reconsider our range breakout verdict.

Econ Data / Events
Market Movement Recap
08:42 AM

Bonds were flat to slightly stronger at the start of the overnight session but moved fairly up fairly quickly as domestic traders clocked in for the day.  Stock prices led the move, but it's not substantial--more of an "insult to injury" scenario where the insult portion isn't the end of our world just yet.  10yr yields are up less than 1bp on the day at .787 and 2.0 MBS are down 1 tick (0.03) at 103-06 (103.19).

09:52 AM

Quick jump into positive territory at the 9:30am NYSE open.  Yes, that's for stocks, but bonds are also stocks when you consider bond-based ETF trading as well as simple asset allocation trading (i.e. money managers selling stocks and needing a different place to put the money).  10yr yields are now DOWN almost a bp and 2.0 UMBS are up an eighth.

01:44 PM

3yr auction was decent enough to not have a noticeable impact on longer-term bonds.  MBS and Treasuries are both in a symmetrical sideways consolidation (higher lows and lower highs occurring at regular intervals, aka a perfect sideways triangle).  10yr yields are holding under the .79% technical level (.777% currently) and 2.0 UMBS are up 2 ticks (0.06).

02:59 PM

Trump tweet re: no stimulus until after election causing massive sell-off in stocks and a sharp rally in bonds.  S&P futures off 1.3% in short order.  10yr yields down 4bps to .738 and 2.0 UMBS up an eighth. 


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.0
103-12 : +0-05
Treasuries
10 YR
0.7452 : -0.0168
Pricing as of 10/6/20 4:11PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
2:54PM  :  Trump Plays Stimulus Card and Bonds Are Loving It So Far
9:13AM  :  Bonds Lose Ground Modestly, But in High Volume After Overnight Gains

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Oct 06
8:30 International trade mm $ (bl) Aug -67.1 -66.1 -63.6
13:00 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) 52
Wednesday, Oct 07
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 320.9
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 3346.9
13:00 10-yr Note Auction (bl)* 35

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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