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MBS RECAP: Still Waiting on Bonds to Attempt a Range Breakout
Sep 17 2020, 4:06PM

Yesterday's Fed announcement managed to deliver the bare minimum of the market's expectations and underdeliver on fairly reasonable hopes. That resulted in a logical protest from both stocks and bonds.  This carried over into today, but bonds have yet to even attempt to break their prevailing range.

Econ Data / Events
  • 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying 10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th)

  • Jobless Claims 860k vs 850k f'cast, 893k prev

  • Housing Starts 1.416m vs 1.478m f'cast, 1.492m prev

  • Philly Fed Index 15.0 vs 15.0 f'cast, 17.2 prev

Market Movement Recap
08:33 AM

Stock prices and bond yields drifted lower in the overnight session with 10yr yields almost 4bps lower by 8am.  Early econ data isn't hurting with none of the 3 reports beating forecasts.  Yields are now down 4.6bps at .653 and 2.0 UMBS are up an eighth at 103.125.

09:45 AM

Bond yields bounced with stock prices--neither by very much.  10yr yields are still down 3bps at .667.  Stocks are still off almost 1.5%.  2.0 UMBS are still up 2 ticks (0.06), but down just as much from the highs seen at 9am.

02:30 PM

MBS hit their weakest levels around 1pm and have bounced modestly since then.  2.0 UMBS are up 2 ticks (0.06).  10yr yields are near the highs of the day but still down 1.5bps at .684.  Stocks parted ways with bonds at 11am and moved back toward their lows (down 1.5% in S&P futures).

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
UMBS 2.0
103-00 : +0-01
10 YR
0.6871 : +0.0001
Pricing as of 9/17/20 4:04PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
9:56AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Early Gains Mostly Erased as Stocks Bounce
8:43AM  :  Adding to Overnight Gains After AM Econ Data

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Sep 17
8:30 Building permits: number (ml) Aug 1.470 1.520 1.483
8:30 Build permits: change mm (%) Aug -0.9 17.9
8:30 Housing starts number mm (ml) Aug 1.416 1.478 1.496
8:30 Philly Fed Business Index * Sep 15.0 15.0 17.2
8:30 House starts mm: change (%) Aug -5.1 22.6
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 860 850 884
Friday, Sep 18
10:00 5yr Inflation Outlook (%) Sep 2.7
10:00 Consumer Sentiment Sep 75.0 74.1
10:00 1yr Inflation Outlook (%) Sep 3.1

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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