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MBS RECAP: Locking vs Floating Ahead of Potentially Big Fed Announcement
Sep 15 2020, 3:54PM

First thing's first: if you haven't seen the adverse market fee make it back onto rate sheets yet, that makes locking a no-brainer.  If you have, then we can move on to considering the impact from the Fed Announcement.  Today's video discusses the relevant considerations in detail.

Econ Data / Events
  • 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying 10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th)

  • NY Fed Manufacturing 17.0 vs 6.0 f'cast, 3.7 prev

  • Import Prices 0.9 vs 0.5 f'cast, 1.2 prev

  • Industrial Output 0.4 vs 1.0 f'cast, 3.5 prev

Market Movement Recap
08:26 AM

Bonds were unchanged to start the overnight session but lost ground modestly during European hours.  Stocks are up almost another 1%, but the bond weakness doesn't look too correlated with that.  10yr up half a bp at .68%.  UMBS 2.0 opening down 1 tick (-0.03) at 103-01 (103.03).

02:45 PM

Intensely uneventful trading session as bonds drift sideways ahead of tomorrow's Fed announcement.  No change from the last update in MBS.  Treasury yields are a hair lower but still slightly higher on the day.

03:48 PM

Stick a fork in the bond market.  If we didn't see any appreciable volatility at the 3pm CME close, "it's done" for the day.  All eyes on the Fed tomorrow, with a slight chance of some volatility with the morning's econ data (Retail Sales).


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.0
103-00 : -0-02
Treasuries
10 YR
0.6756 : +0.0066
Pricing as of 9/15/20 3:51PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
8:52AM  :  No Impact From Stronger Data

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Sep 16
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 317.7
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 3415.1
8:30 Retail Sales (%)* Aug 1.0 1.2
10:00 NAHB housing market indx Sep 78 78
10:00 Business Inventories (% ) Jul 0.1 -1.1
14:00 FOMC rate decision (%)* N/A 0.125 0.125

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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