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MBS RECAP: Why The Range Risk in Treasuries Matters to Mortgages
Jul 24 2020, 4:01PM

We've been following .58% in 10yr yields for months as the best candidate for the bottom of "the range."  Now that mortgage rates have largely settled relative to Treasuries, the .58% floor, until and unless we see yields move below .58% and remain in stronger territory, it suggests bonds and mortgage rates may take some time to consolidate or even correct toward slightly higher levels before doing whatever they're going to do next.

Econ Data / Events
Market Movement Recap
08:18 AM

Stocks and bond yields initially moved lower overnight, but reversed course in Europe.  Stocks are still slightly weaker, but bonds reversed more sharply with 10yr yields up 1.2bps to .587%.  2.0 UMBS are starting out 3 ticks weaker (0.09).

11:53 AM

No reaction to data (or anything else for that matter).  Bonds remains sideways to slightly weaker.  10yr yields are up .7bps at .584. UMBS 2.0 coupons are down 1 ticks (0.03) at 102-28 (102.875).

01:48 PM

As stocks slide softly, bonds have found a small amount of traction.  2.0 MBS are back to 'unchanged' on the day.  10yr yields are only half a bp from unchanged at .582.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.0
102-28 : -0-01
Treasuries
10 YR
0.5870 : +0.0050
Pricing as of 7/24/20 3:59PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
11:52AM  :  Slow Morning; Bonds Little-Changed

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Jul 27
8:30 Nondefense ex-air (%)* Jun 2.3 1.6
8:30 Durable goods (%)* Jun 7.2 15.7
11:30 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 48
13:00 5-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 49
Tuesday, Jul 28
9:00 CaseShiller 20 yy (% ) May 4.0 4.0
10:00 Consumer confidence * Jul 94.5 98.1
13:00 7-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 44
Wednesday, Jul 29
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 3973.3
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 310.9
10:00 Pending Home Sales (%) Jun 15.3 44.3
14:00 FOMC rate decision (%)* N/A 0.125 0.125
Thursday, Jul 30
8:30 GDP Advance (%)* Q2 -34.0 -5.0
Friday, Jul 31
8:30 Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%)* Jun 1.0 1.0
9:45 Chicago PMI * Jul 44.5 36.6
10:00 Consumer Sentiment (ip) Jul 72.9 73.2

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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