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MBS RECAP: How Low Can Rates Eventually Go?
Jul 20 2020, 2:57PM

Until further notice, we can expect to see the bond market drift in a fairly consistent range, making modest course course corrections depending on the covid outlook. We can also dig into the nuts and bolts of the mortgage bond market to ask and answer questions about how low rates can eventually go. The answer is actually surprisingly simple.

Econ Data / Events
Market Movement Recap
08:16 AM

Bonds opened the overnight session slightly stronger.  Stocks were slightly weaker.  No major movement since then, but a slightly stronger bias in bonds in early domestic trading.

11:43 AM

Yields found bottom right in line with Friday's lows (.60%) and have been moving higher since roughly 9am.  2.0 UMBS bounced at their Friday highs shortly thereafter and are down about 2 ticks (0.06) since then.

01:20 PM

MBS and Treasuries both just turned negative on the day, but not for any particular reason.  The only suspect at the scene of the crime was simply the close of the European bond market (it's not uncommon to see tradeflows shift after a major market closes/opens for the day).

02:52 PM

After a bit more weakness, both Treasuries and MBS found support.  Both are near unchanged despite ongoing strength in stocks.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.0
102-24 : -0-01
Treasuries
10 YR
0.6200 : -0.0080
Pricing as of 7/20/20 2:56PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
1:20PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Reprice Risk Increasing Slightly
1:03PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: MBS Now Down an Eighth of a Point From Highs

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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