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MBS RECAP: Bonds Making a Case For a New Trend
Jul 9 2020, 4:03PM

We've talked a lot about the linear uptrend in bond yields that began in April.  It was defeated by the end of June and bonds began drifting sideways.  But now they may be making a case for a new trend toward lower rates.

Econ Data / Events
  • 11:30-11:50 AM (ET) - Fed 30yr UMBS Buying  

  • Jobless Claims 1.314m vs 1.375m f'cast, 1.427 prev

  • Continued Claims 18.062m vs 18.95m f'cast, 19,290m prev

Market Movement Recap
08:16 AM

Once again, stocks and bonds made a modest move to start the overnight session and were then extremely flat since then.  MBS starting out up 1 tick (0.03) and 10yr yields are down 1.3bps at .653

11:00 AM

Bonds are rallying nicely now as the stock market swan dives.  10yr yields down more than 4bps to .62%+ and UMBS 2.0 up an eight, quickly approaching 103.00

12:57 PM

MBS outperforming as Treasuries prepare for the 30yr bond auction.  UMBS 2.0 up nearly a quarter point, now at all-time highs of 103.

01:51 PM

There's a bit of a run on bonds at the moment, and it is NOT relying on stock market weakness.  10yr yields are challenging the lowest levels since mid May and UMBS 2.0 coupons are up almost 3/8ths of a point trading at 103-04 (103.125).

03:55 PM

Bond rally ran out of steam--especially for MBS.  We're still stronger on the day, but more than a quarter point off the highs.  No real reason for the reversal apart from the strength that came before it.

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
UMBS 2.0
102-30 : +0-05
10 YR
0.6090 : -0.0440
Pricing as of 7/9/20 4:01PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
3:54PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing For Some Lenders
3:33PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: MBS More Than an Eighth Off The Highs; Any Reprice Risk?
1:08PM  :  Super Strong 30yr Bond Auction Adds to The Rally
10:59AM  :  Bonds Improving as Stocks Tank
8:47AM  :  No Reaction to Slightly Stronger Jobless Claims Data

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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