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MBS RECAP: Record-Breaking Job Gains, But Bonds Ultimately Improve
Jul 2 2020, 3:26PM

Last month's jobs report shattered records, both for the outright level of job creation and for the gap between job growth and forecasts.  While today's job count was even bigger (+4.8 million versus 2.699m last month), it wasn't as far above the forecast consensus (1.8m gap versus 10.5m last month).  But even that doesn't fully explain why bonds were able to get back to stronger levels a few hours later. Waiting on covid news!

Econ Data / Events
  • 11:30-11:50 AM (ET) - Fed 30yr UMBS Buying  

  • Nonfarm Payrolls 4.8m vs 3.0m f'cast, 2.699m prev

  • Unemployment rate 11.1 vs 12.3 f'cast, 13.3 prev

  • Jobless Claims 1.427m vs 1.355m f'cast, 1.482m prev

Market Movement Recap
08:18 AM

Bonds broadly unchanged overnight despite mild-mannered rally in stocks.  10yr yields starting the day up 0.3bps at .679 and UMBS 2.0 coupons are up 1 tick (0.03) at 102-10 (102.31)

10:25 AM

Most of the losses in Treasuries have been erased with 10s back down to .686 (up 1bp on the day). MBS are still outperforming and are currently at the highs of the day up 3 ticks (.09) at 102-12 (102.375).


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.0
102-11 : +0-02
Treasuries
10 YR
0.6690 : -0.0130
Pricing as of 7/2/20 3:24PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:25AM  :  Majority of AM Weakness Erased
8:39AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Bonds Losing Ground Modestly Despite Big Jobs Report Beat

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Charles Eriman  :  "most of pricing today was unchanged from yesterday. Slight lean toward locking today"
Caroline Roy  :  "i'm taking off mon-wed, so feeling lock-inclined on new stuff today. probably overly cautious, but three days away from the lock trigger makes me nervous!"
Paul Cook  :  "it does look that way"
Sam Baugh  :  "Yah looks like pricing got pulled back already ahead of the long weekend. Lenders that have weekend pricing don’t want to leave the candy store unattended."
Michael Kirsch  :  "mbs look likes a scary double peak or continued break out , what a dice roll over this weekend,!"

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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