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Tracking Covid's Impact on Mortgages; Record Low Rates For How Long?
Published: 7/6/2020
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by: Matthew Graham
MBS RECAP: Lots of Indecision, But The Outcome Should Make Sense
Jun 25 2020, 2:50PM

Both stocks and bonds are trading sideways after taking a step back from their early June momentum.  This indecision reflects uncertainty about economic reopening vs rising covid case counts.  As soon as a clear winner emerges, markets (and rates) will move accordingly.

Econ Data / Events

  • 11:30-11:50 AM (ET) - Fed 30yr UMBS Buying  

  • GDP (Q1) (-5.0 vs -5.0 f'cast/prev)

  • Jobless Claims (1.48m vs 1.3m f'cast) 1.54m prev

  • Continued Claims (19.52m vs 19.96m f'cast) 20.28m prev

  • Durable Goods (15.8 vs 10.9 f'cast) -18.1 prev

  • Cap-Ex (2.3 vs 1.0 f'cast) -6.5 prev

Market Movement Recap
08:15 AM

Stocks and bond yields fell overnight amid a general "risk-off" trade.  B Relative to yesterday's bigger move, the overnight session was basically flat.

11:28 AM

Stocks and bonds remain broadly sideways although bonds are off their best levels of the day.  10yr yields down 1bp at .669 and UMBS 2.0 unchanged at 102-00

01:54 PM

Stocks are still flat on the day and have been trading a narrow range.  Treasuries have weakened slightly but remain just barely in positive territory.  MBS are outperforming with 2.0 UMBS at the highs of the day.

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.0
102-02 : +0-02
Treasuries
10 YR
0.6720 : -0.0120
Pricing as of 6/25/20 2:47PMEST
Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
8:38AM  :  Econ Data Mixed; Bonds Slightly Stronger
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Jun 25
8:30 GDP Final (%) Q1 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0
8:30 Durable goods (%)* May 15.8 10.9 -17.7
8:30 Nondefense ex-air (%)* May 2.3 1.0 -6.1
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 1480 1300 1508
8:30 Continued jobless claims (ml) w/e 19.522 19.968 20.544
Friday, Jun 26
8:30 Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%)* May 0.9 1.0
10:00 Consumer Sentiment (ip) Jun 79.0 78.9

About the Author

Matthew Graham
Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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Mortgage Rates:
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