Lots of Indecision, But The Outcome Should Make Sense
Both stocks and bonds are trading sideways after taking a step back from their early June momentum. This indecision reflects uncertainty about economic reopening vs rising covid case counts. As soon as a clear winner emerges, markets (and rates) will move accordingly.
11:30-11:50 AM (ET) - Fed 30yr UMBS Buying
GDP (Q1) (-5.0 vs -5.0 f'cast/prev)
Jobless Claims (1.48m vs 1.3m f'cast) 1.54m prev
Continued Claims (19.52m vs 19.96m f'cast) 20.28m prev
Durable Goods (15.8 vs 10.9 f'cast) -18.1 prev
Cap-Ex (2.3 vs 1.0 f'cast) -6.5 prev
Stocks and bond yields fell overnight amid a general "risk-off" trade. B Relative to yesterday's bigger move, the overnight session was basically flat.
Stocks and bonds remain broadly sideways although bonds are off their best levels of the day. 10yr yields down 1bp at .669 and UMBS 2.0 unchanged at 102-00
Stocks are still flat on the day and have been trading a narrow range. Treasuries have weakened slightly but remain just barely in positive territory. MBS are outperforming with 2.0 UMBS at the highs of the day.
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