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MBS RECAP: Big Risks Ahead For Rates and Some Solid Opporunities Right Now
Jun 4 2020, 4:15PM

Treasury yields broke one important ceiling yesterday (.74%) and another today at .79% before finding support at .823%.  This leaves them at the highest levels since late March and in danger of moving higher.  Mortgage rates have been outperforming, but they're not immune from the risks.

Econ Data / Events
  • 11:30-11:50 AM (ET) - Fed 30yr UMBS Buying  

  • Jobless Claims 1.877m vs 1.800m f'cast

  • Continued Claims 21.487m vs 20.838m previous

Market Movement Recap
08:07 AM

Only modestly weaker overnight with no major reaction to the first phase of the European Central Bank announcement.  The press conference is yet to come.  Treasury yields continue holding under yesterday's highs.  MBS are opening roughly unchanged, but haven't found liquidity yet.  10yr yields are up 1.5bps at .761.

08:59 AM

Shortly after the last update (which discussed 'unchanged' bond markets), Treasuries quickly jumped 1bp in 10yr yields with little apparent provocation.  Lagarde is speaking, yes, but there was no equivalent move in European bonds.

09:52 AM

Bonds deteriorating rapidly.  Technical ceilings taken out in Treasuries (10yr up 7.2bps to 0.818%).  MBS outperforming, but a quarter point weaker nonetheless.  No new market mover behind this.  Bond traders came to sell today and were just waiting to see if the ECB gave them a reason to do anything else.

12:50 PM

Things look to have stabilized for now in the bond market.  10yr yields holding near 0.81% (+6.5bps on the day).  MBS significantly outperforming with 2.0 UMBS 30yr coupons down just over an eighth of a point on the day.  Stocks are off highs and now back to dometic session lows (which wseems to be helping).


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.0
101-18 : -0-04
Treasuries
10 YR
0.8180 : +0.0570
Pricing as of 6/4/20 4:13PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
3:11PM  :  MBS Holding Up Pretty Well Despite Ongoing Treasury Slide
9:51AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: More Reprice Risk; Things Are Getting Serious
9:13AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Quick Reversal; Bonds Losing Ground
8:57AM  :  Jobless Claims Can't Pull Off The Repeat; Lagarde Uneventful

About the Author

Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live
A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

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