After weeks and weeks spent discussing the impacts on growth surrounding coronavirus, we're only now getting to the very first release of GDP for Q1. Forecast consensus is -4.0.  There will be 2 additional revisions in the 2 following months and it won't be until late July that we finally see the first release of Q2 numbers.  In the meantime, more timely data like weekly Jobless Claims will continue to be significantly more relevant.

The other focal points for econ data this week include Pending Home Sales on Wednesday, Chicago PMI on Thursday and ISM Manufacturing PMI on Friday, May 1st.  Notably, NFP will not be out on Friday even though it's the first Friday in May. 

Wednesday's Pending Home Sales may be the first of the housing data that shows the sort of massive downtick that we've seen elsewhere in the economy.   It's not that other housing headlines haven't been downbeat, but so far, they've only returned the charts back in line with relatively recent highs (2018 to mid-2019).  Moreover, last month's pending sales data actually IMPROVED.  The consensus is for a 10% drop in March.

MBS and Treasuries both get less help from the Fed this week, but both are starting in the same narrow ranges, very close to their best levels from last week.  The Fed will likely have at least something to say about how it expects to proceed with bond buying at its Wednesday afternoon announcement and press conference (2pm and 230pm respectively).  

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
UMBS 2.5
103-30 : -0-02
10 YR
0.6260 : +0.0300
Pricing as of 4/27/20 9:14AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Monday, Apr 27
13:00 5-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 43
Tuesday, Apr 28
9:00 CaseShiller 20 yy (% ) Feb 3.3 3.1
10:00 Consumer confidence * Apr 88.0 120.0
13:00 7-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 35
Wednesday, Apr 29
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 186.4
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 4206.7
8:30 GDP Advance (%)* Q1 -4.0 2.1
10:00 Pending Sales Index Mar 111.5
10:00 Pending Home Sales (%) Mar -10.0 2.4
14:00 FOMC rate decision (%)* N/A 0.125 0.125
Thursday, Apr 30
8:30 Personal Income (%)* Mar -1.5 0.6
8:30 Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%)* Mar 1.7 1.8
8:30 Continued jobless claims (ml) w/e 15.976
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 3500 4427
9:45 Chicago PMI * Apr 37.9 47.8
Friday, May 01
10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI * Apr 36.7 49.1
10:00 Construction spending (%) Mar -3.5 -1.3