10yr yields were as low as 1.24% and ended the day at 1.27% after a decent amount of volatility.  MBS gained almost a quarter point, but mortgage lenders did not generally improve rate sheets by that much (and some not at all).

Back in the day (but not too far...), it was hard not to notice that the bond market had a habit of hitting long-term low yields on years that ended in 3 and 8.  This began in 1993 and worked out perfectly until 2008.  It was the topic of a small amount of inconsequential debate in 2013 as yields were still really low, but had technically bottomed out in 2012.  The prophecy was then forgetting in 2018 because, clearly, it wasn't anywhere close to happening at that point.

Enter 2020 and the rapid rush to new all-time low yields.  Consider that in the context of 2012 and 2008 being the last 2 instances of big moves to super-long-term lows and we have a new "4 year prophecy" to replace the "3's and 8s'" prophecy from the previous 2 decades.  

Does any of this matter?  No, not really.  It's just kind of interesting to consider.  Does anything really matter?  Surely, it must, but nothing seems to matter when it comes to derailing concerted global efforts to adjust to a temporarily bleak economic future brought about by Coronavirus (CV).  When we have the President declaring that the US outbreak was limited to 15 people, and the next day we have an unexpected headline about California monitoring 8400 people who may have been exposed, 33 people test positive, and 5 of those already leave the state, there's absolutely no reason that financial markets should consider doing anything but what they've been doing.

Stocks are in the spotlight now, with some headlines latching onto the fact that today boasted the biggest single day point loss in history for the Dow (not the biggest % loss though).  Given the carnage there, the volatility and overall movement in the bond market is measured by comparison.  This could also be a clue that the bond rally is running out of steam.  But that's for tomorrow's CV headlines to decide. 


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.5
101-08 : +0-07
Treasuries
10 YR
1.2740 : -0.0360
Pricing as of 2/27/20 6:29PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
12:11PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Reprice Risk Increasing For Some Lenders
11:16AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Not Necessarily an Alert
9:56AM  :  As Expected, Strong Econ Data Doesn't Matter

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "buh-bye S&P over 3000"
Brendan Kolesar  :  "BM same same ----- fulfillment driven im sure"
Bobby McGihon  :  "Any other retail folks noticing jumbo pricing lagging severely? Barely any movement this week so far."
Matthew Graham  :  "CALIFORNIA HAD 33 PEOPLE TEST POSITIVE FOR CORONAVIRUS, 5 MOVED OUT OF STATE -GOVERNOR NEWSOM"
Matthew Graham  :  "CALIFORNIA MONITORING 8,400 PEOPLE FOR CORONAVIRUS WHO ARRIVED ON DOMESTIC COMMERCIAL FLIGHTS -GOVERNOR NEWSOM"
Matthew Graham  :  "Gotta love the bond market in 2020! When else are we going to feel like it's a bad day because yields are "UP" to 1.30%?"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Feb 27
8:30 GDP Prelim (%)* Q4 2.1 2.1 2.1
8:30 Durable goods (%)* Jan -0.2 -1.5 2.4
8:30 Nondefense ex-air (%)* Jan 1.1 0.1 -0.8
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 219 212 210
10:00 Pending Sales Index Jan 108.8 103.2
10:00 Pending Home Sales (%) Jan +5.2 2.2 -4.9
13:00 7-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 32