Bonds were weaker in the overnight session as Chinese equities markets continued to bounce toward higher levels.  This follows a head-fake toward lower levels last week that helped rates move back toward the lowest levels in more than 3.5 years.  Follow-through from that move was responsible for Monday morning's low rates.  But in general, this week has been about the market moving to price OUT the ill effects of the coronavirus panic.  

For whatever reason, Treasuries have done an admirable job resisting that move, but their defiance has a boundary.  In other words, if Chinese equities markets and US stocks continue higher (especially if those gains are driven by coronavirus headlines), US bond yields are likely to follow more faithfully. 

One explanation for bond resilience may have been hiding in plain sight today as Powell delivered congressional testimony.  Markets feel like they're well aware of the Fed's stance, which includes things like the near impossibility of rate hikes without a thunderous surge of inflation, and the likelihood of additional quantitative easing in the next downturn.  The Fed even acknowledged (via a separate speech and only indirectly in Powell's comments) that coronavirus could ultimately result in the need for easier monetary policy.  If we consider that Fed policy is the rising tide for all boats, it would go a long way in reconciling bonds' ability to do better than we'd expect them to do on a day where stocks were pushing all-time highs.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
102-02 : -0-03
Treasuries
10 YR
1.6020 : +0.0550
Pricing as of 2/11/20 5:19PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
1:14PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing
9:02AM  :  Weaker Overnight, But Off Worst Levels After Powell Comments

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "Well, let's leave it at this: if this becomes something that looks like it could happen, I hope he is made aware that it's a rate hike on Americans and has a chance to address that."
Bryce Schetselaar  :  "why don't they just admit they are using F/F as a piggy bank?"
Matthew Graham  :  "As a person who seems to be a fan of low rates, I wonder if he realizes that this would be an instant 0.10% rate hike on the hardworking, mortgage-seeking American people?"
Matthew Graham  :  "The day-over-day change is adjusted for the roll"
Victor Mendoza  :  "MG, I know it is the roll day. At what price on FNMA 3.0 can we tell if we are positive for the day?"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Feb 11
13:00 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) 38
Wednesday, Feb 12
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 283.8
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 2975.7
13:00 10-yr Note Auction (bl)* 27