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Do you expect the home buyer tax credit extension to contribute to a noticeable pick up in loan production?

Created By: Adam Quinones
  • Yes, I anticipate an increase in activity (27.1%)
  • Only a modest upturn in production (44.2%)
  • Nope. 2009 demand stole from 2010 demand (28.7%)

Federal Reserve MBS Purchase Program

MBS OPEN: Stuck in Same Range

Posted
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At the open the 10 yr is bouncing around between 3.53 and 3.57. Although it has been a slow start to the trading session, we are seeing some signs of a stabilization in flows (buyers and sellers equaling out). However as stock futures tick higher we may see selling pressure pick up.

The 4.5 MBS coupon is 3 ticks lower in price, but stuck in the same range that held for the duration of yesterday's trading day. However if TSY prices move lower, expect prices of rate sheet influential MBS coupons to follow the leader.

 

NYMEX Crude prices are off yesterday's week over week 62.35 high, current bid is 61.61

The dollar index is stronger. Currently at 79.57.

Stock futures are improving following better than expected Housing Starts data

2s vs. 5s: 148bps

2s vs. 10s: 260bps

5s vs. 10s: 112bps


MBS, TSY, LIBOR QUOTES

Data provided by Thomson Reuters
Secondary Marketing Managers and Capital Markets Desks, if you are interested in subscribing to the same fixed income and mortgage market data we use:CLICK HERE.
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Comments

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on
Great site...I would say 'dittos' but I'm not an RL fan :-) Posters here have been very helpful except one who, after I let slip the phrase "keeping my lender honest", flamed me un-mercifully to vent his general frustration at fence-sitting, mistrustful harry-homeowners(HHs). Like Sotomayor, I must use the "unfortunate rhetorical flourish" defense. Best of luck to all
on
Happy Friday to everyone...hope it's a good day for all.
on
10 yr yields sharply higher, testing 3.63. MBS price consequently lower, however "rate sheet influential" coupons are outperforming TSYs. 4.5 currently -0-06 at 99-13
on
Not good. Am I missing something on those Citi results. Strip out the Smith Barney Sale and they lost 2.5 Billion. Strip out the write ups and they lost much more. Larger loss than a year ago. Larger consumer defaults. Where is the positive spin coming from?
on
That's the really sad thing about all of this...the media has been really good at spinning $hit into sunshine and rainbows and the 'keepers of the coin", Gordon Gekko types are eating it up like skittles and running with it!
on
Looks like bonds and mbs hit their worst levels right as rate sheets are coming out.
on
Michael- I saw your post yesterday and you were upset about the loan officer not sending you the rate sheets. Rate sheets are not for the general public. And you were going to threaten the loan officer with other lender's offers. You got 4.75% You should be jumping for joy. Let it be and enjoy the fact that you probably locked on the best day in over a month.
on
1 in 84 homes in this country received foreclosure notice in the first half of 2k9 and building permits are up 9% in June. We should be razing homes, not trying to build more. I guess the banks are in the market for new construction inventory nowadays.
on
LOL, guess I'm not the ONLY one tired of know-it-all consumers on the blog, aye? I think they should all read Victor's blog and stop trying to learn the back end of the mortgage business, LOL.
on
I wonder how Brann would feel if someone reacted to his professional procedure by describing it as blah blah blah. Maybe it's tough to blah blah blah an English Professor, oh wait, he can't possibly be one of those.
on
RED Day starting to look ugly. Banks beat estimates, but they were so low they should and the worse is yet to come for them. I don't get it.
on
I agree I thought this was a b2b blog, not a consumer site.
on
Heading down to Florida tomorrow. Going to be working from Port St. Lucie for the next 2 weeks. Any good restaurants to eat at in the area? I hear West Palm has some nice places to go. Looks as though today is going to be a wash, hopefully some afternoon strength but I doubt it on a summer Friday.
on
I think Julian and Aimee put it best. We still down 46% on Housing Starts from a year ago so everything we are seeing lately is strickly on a technical standpoint.
on
Adam & All, As I understand the "banks paying back the Gov funds" They are buying back the stock & warrents they issued for bail out funds correct? So that means they are paying "todays " price , not the original issue price. In reference to US banks anouncement that it paid back all the funds yesterday. Thanks
on
Adam, I think Michael Brann knows his loan officer is giving him a good deal. I believe it was his loan officer who referred him to this site. Something even tells me his loan officer helped him lock in at the top of the range rather than the bottom. Hmmm. Why would a loan officer do that if his motivation was to keep the borrower at the higher rate? I also think that the loan officer broke down to the client all the adjustments and what he was making on the loan. I would think this loan officers motivation would be to keep his clients business rather than have him go somewhere else. What! An honest mortgage person. Those don't exsist though, right Adam and Hammer? All kidding aside, I'm sure Michaels loan officer doesn't mind him checking up on him. In the end it only helps our professions image and it's kind of like a "i told you so" without having to say it:)
on
4.5 just dropped 20 bps in a blink of an eye down to 99.17. WTH is going on? Come on 7 or 11, baby needs a new pair of shoes!!!
on
Is Mike King the man behind Brann's 4.75% rate? Kudos for dealing with such an ungrateful, uninformed, miserable individual.
on
Simmer down Ben. There's no call for your angry postings. Phew! Lots of frustration out there I know...but no reason for you to vent at me.
on
Ben, Micheal is not ungrateful, and miserable. Just curious and doesn't want to remain ignorant like a lot of other consumers. He has a right to be a little untrusting, he came to me from a file that another LO kind of left on the shelf. I'm just trying to save the loan for our company, make a good relationship out of it and show Michael that despite the media bashing, there are good loan officers out there.
on
I'm not venting Brann. I'm letting you know that your postings are insulting to anyone who makes a hard earned living in the mortgage business. Be thankful, don't blah blah blah what you don't know, and go tell everyone you know to use the loan officer you are using. That is your role. Your role is not to find ways to speak condescendingly about this business.
on
Point taken I do (and did) apologize for my flip comment yesterday. But again, I would say that there is no excuse for unprofessional postings meant to humiliate people.
on
Housing starts up, market applauds. Same story, different day. This started 2 yrs ago, when the first real cracks in housing appeared. No one wants what's out there, so let's build more? You can thank this for part of the depreciation story. For every one new house that gets started, even now, there's 10 existing, sitting out there 9-18 mos. And going lower and lower. I work in about as stable an area as possible, with a high state and local govt. presence, and thus low unemployment. And all I hear is values down 20-35% from a couple years ago. Tell me what the justification is for values stabilizing, with the above-referenced nonsense going on, not to say anything of the 85% and higher pay option loans from 04-07 that are just getting to the point of re-setting? I think that's yet another wave of foreclosures. And, more lowering of home prices Freefall in prices + unemployment marching to double digits + consumer purchase power dwindling=end of recession at year end?
on

go to your corners guys... no reason we can't all get along. There are valid feelings among all here, but perhaps not expressed the way I would do it. If I were a consumer, I'd likely act similarly, even though the same sentiments have always welled up inside me as a broker. But also, if I were a consumer, once the author and founder of the most widely read and trusted hourly commentary on the mortgage interest rate market told me that Mike King is one of the hardest working, most educated, most honest, and most utterly trustworthy guys I've dealt with, I'd probably be thrilled to be working with him. Brann, I know Mike understands what I do in that there is an inherent disconnect between the American Public and the mortgage industry right now. So of course most of us understand when "stuff like this" happens, but those of us with either faith in humanity or the confidence to create change hope that an opportunity comes at some point during the "stuff like this" to change perceptions, restore trust, and create relationships that exceed expectations. Sometimes that happens, sometimes it doesn't. I suggest that this be that turning point for you. It would be very hard to find a better rate or a better guy. And to King, and some other more vitriolic respondents, guys, I totally understand... I just tell clients up front, "here's who I am, here's what I do, and if you can't trust me up front and may end up shopping around and reworking endless iterations of GFE's etc..., do it before we get started because I don't have enough profit margin or time to get involved in a bidding war or an excessive "back and forth" over rates and fees." So again, I have voices inside me that sound like the Hammer sometimes (did I really just say that?), but we gotta remember where they're coming from too. Yes, the blog is intended for loan pro's, but we can't police who logs on and I don't think it's so out of bounds for consumers to try to get as educated as possible. That being the case, there is a peaceful coexistence that can exist if we take steps towards the middle. Consumers can understand that some of us (especially the ones that are still around!) are decent people, and LO's can understand that consumers are wary (to say the least) of anything with the word mortgage in it.

on
I tend to agree with Mike King. I think the LO disclosed all the adjustments to try to prove that Brann was getting a good deal. Brann I dont know of any loan officers that are going to give you a rate sheet to allow you to choose your own pricing. That would be like a car dealership breaking down what the car costs them behind the scenes, how much they will sell your trade in for, and how much the manager of the car dealership gets his car for compared to what your buying.
on
Thanks guys. I've worked with 2 bad lenders and 2 good lenders so far and Mike King is a good one. He's straight up about things which works well for me.
on
Do you guys think we will get a mid day price improvement?