I've been staring at this blank space on my monitor, where I normally put the words for the opening post of the day/week, for about 40 minutes, trying to think of something interesting and meaningful to say about the week ahead.  The space isn't blank anymore after that first sentence, but it might as well be.

Thanksgiving week is a black hole for the bond market.  Activity drops sharply (usually) throughout the week.  Rapidly lower liquidity can give way to counter-intuitive movements at times, and much bigger moves than would otherwise be seen. 

The only major wild card this week will be the fact that it is a very late Thanksgiving, thus making this "month-end" for markets.  Typically, investors have the first day or two of the following week to lock down end-of-November trades.  Instead, they'll need to get that all done by Wednesday.  Few will want to wait until Friday's illiquid half-day.

What does all this mean for us?  Quite a lot of nothing.  Yes, markets may move.  They may even more in a somewhat convincing way, but time and again, we've seen Thanksgiving week moves easily erased at the beginning of December.  In the shorter term, we can play the range (as seen below) and try to take advantage of any obvious moves.  At the moment, the risk continues to be that we've just bounced at 1.74% and are now potentially heading higher.

2019-11-25 open

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.0
101-11 : -0-01
10 YR
1.7720 : -0.0020
Pricing as of 11/25/19 9:09AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Monday, Nov 25
13:00 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 40
Tuesday, Nov 26
9:00 CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) Sep 0.0
9:00 Monthly Home Price yy (%) Sep 4.6
10:00 New home sales-units mm (ml)* Oct 0.709 0.701
10:00 Consumer confidence * Nov 127.0 125.9
10:00 New home sales chg mm (%)* Oct 1.1 -0.7
13:00 5-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 41
Wednesday, Nov 27
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 270.4
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 2190.6
8:30 GDP Prelim (%)* Q3 1.9 1.9
8:30 Durable goods (%)* Oct -0.8 -1.2
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 221 227
10:00 Personal Income (%)* Oct 0.3 0.3
10:00 Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%)* Oct 1.7 1.7
10:00 Pending Sales Index Oct 108.7
10:00 Pending Home Sales (%) Oct 0.8 1.5
11:30 7-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 32
Thursday, Nov 28
0:00 Thanksgiving Day *
Friday, Nov 29
9:45 Chicago PMI * Nov 47.0 43.2