As 2019 winds down, investors have never been so broadly certain about the overall market thesis.  Unfortunately, that thesis calls for unavoidable uncertainty and the inability to clear it up very quickly.   Reason being: we need to see if global economic data is going to reverse course and make improvements.  We also need to see how the US/China trade negotiations will evolve.

Trade is so important because investors are viewing it as one of the most time advance indicators imaginable.  In other words, if a trade deal happens, it may not be fully reflected in the economic data for several months.  Trickle down effects could take years.  Granted, a deal will probably happen, but the details and the timeline remain intentionally mysterious.  That's one of the key reasons markets seem to put too much faith in every little trade headline as a potential market mover.

Indeed, that was today's key event as a CNBC reporter said Chinese officials were frustrated about Trump denying the plan to roll back tariffs.  The same report suggested China could wait for impeachment proceedings to finish or even for the next presidential election.  Stocks and bond yields shot quickly lower on that news but gradually stabilized in the afternoon.  Bonds ended the day with modest, but important gains (because they keep us well within the broader consolidation trend--i.e. basically living to fight another day).

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.0
101-10 : +0-01
10 YR
1.8170 : -0.0170
Pricing as of 11/18/19 4:50PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
3:45PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: MBS Near Lows; Slight Reprice Risk For a Few Lenders
8:34AM  :  Bonds Reverse Overnight Losses After Downbeat Trade Tweet

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Brian McFarlane  :  "Correct"
Jason Anker  :  "renters would need to also qualify with their rental payment no?"
Brian McFarlane  :  "JT, Freddie is still the same. Fannie and Freddie are pretty much aligned now. The only difference that I can see is that Fannie will allow renters to use an offset whereas Freddie will only allow borrowers with a principal residence to use"
Jason Anker  :  "read it because these comments are very incomplete"
Scott Valins  :  "right its to use in excess of PITI wash out"
Jason Anker  :  "but that's not the entire rule"
Scott Valins  :  "Fannie effective on cases after 12/7/19"
Scott Valins  :  "correct Fannie and Freddie now require ownership of primary and landlord experience"
Brian McFarlane  :  "Recent change to that with Fannie ES. Landlord experience comes into play now."

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Nov 18
10:00 NAHB housing market indx Nov 70 71 71
Tuesday, Nov 19
8:30 Build permits: change mm (%)* Oct -2.4
8:30 House starts mm: change (%) Oct -9.4
8:30 Housing starts number mm (ml)* Oct 1.320 1.256
8:30 Building permits: number (ml)* Oct 1.385 1.391