Heading into last week's Fed announcement and economic data, the analysis was starting to get a bit gloomy.  It wasn't the first time I talked about the size and scope of 2019's rally increasingly suggesting its demise, but like the rate spike in mid September, it was one of the more serious occasions.  

Now, 3 short days after yields seemed to be stampeding back toward all-time lows, here we are again at the same troublesome levels that prompted the doom and gloom 2 weeks ago.  I could say something to the effect of "things are more serious this time," and I could make a pretty compelling case for that.  It would likely draw on the trade deal progress and the resilience in a few key pieces of recent economic data.  

But instead, I'll say, things are AS SERIOUS now as they were last Monday.  Where they go from here will actually be very simple and logical.  Rates are going to move according to their baseline programming.  They're going to follow economic data!  

Today's ISM Non-Manufacturing reaction was a classic example and a true testament to the bond markets intense focus on the data.  Bottom line: if it looks like the data is moving away from levels that would confirm all of this summer's economic bearishness, rates are likely to keep moving away from those long-term lows.  


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
101-05 : -0-12
Treasuries
10 YR
1.8570 : +0.0690
Pricing as of 11/5/19 6:27PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
2:53PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprices Becoming More Likely
10:02AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: ISM Stronger Than Expected; Bonds Aren't Happy
9:09AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Bonds Hitting The Panic Button Even Before ISM

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
John Trayler  :  "sea of red"
Tom Schwab  :  "It is only socialism when you take from someone and redistribute it. If you print it then it is called magic"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Nov 05
8:30 International trade mm $ (bl) Sep -52.5 -52.5 -54.9
10:00 ISM N-Mfg PMI * Oct 54.7 53.5 52.6
10:00 ISM N-Mfg Bus Act * Oct 57.0 55.0 55.2
Wednesday, Nov 06
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 2066.0
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 247.2
8:30 Labor Costs Preliminary (%) Q3 2.2 2.6
13:00 10-yr Note Auction (bl)* 27