Bonds had a reasonably rough day yesterday, but most of the weakness was reserved for Treasuries.  MBS managed to escape with minimal damage.  There were no standout market movers although cases could be made for trade deal optimism and supply concerns (Treasury auctions and corporate issuance).  There were also a few stronger economic reports in Europe overnight.

Heading into today, bonds have been on the back foot right from the start of Asian trading hours.  An upbeat speech from Chinese President Xi set the tone early in the overnight session--at least for stocks.  Bond Treasuries are simply in a linear pattern of pain.

20191105 open

It's a bit easier to see what I mean with respect to the linear move in Treasuries with them on their own chart.

20191105 open3

In the bigger picture, this means last week's nice little move down from the consolidation range ceiling is almost perfectly erased and momentum indicators are having second thoughts about the positive signals that were intact yesterday morning.

20191105 open2

One of our only chances for short-term salvation would be a much weaker than expected reading in today's ISM Non-Manufacturing report at 10am ET.  Otherwise, it's hard to see traders getting too excited about buying bonds until after this week's auction cycle.  Even then, if the trade war narrative continues heading in the same direction, it's time to go back to some of the more dire warnings of the last few weeks (like this one).


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
101-11 : -0-06
Treasuries
10 YR
1.8390 : +0.0510
Pricing as of 11/5/19 8:50AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Nov 05
10:00 ISM N-Mfg PMI * Oct 53.5 52.6
10:00 ISM N-Mfg Bus Act * Oct 55.0 55.2
13:00 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) 38