Treasuries tanked today and there were none of the sort of obvious catalysts you'd hope to see.  I checked my math on that with people smarter than me and the conclusion was the same.  Granted, we can all point to things that probably aren't helping: some anecdotal trade deal traction over the weekend, stronger EU econ data overnight, new month tradeflows, and supply-related concessions.  But if Treasury yields were lower today, there would be no reason to mention any of those things.

Perhaps the only thing truly worth mentioning (apart from the market movement itself) is the fact that MBS were almost totally immune from the Treasury trouble.  This adds to the case that "supply" (Treasury auctions and corporate issuance) is a factor in the sell-off.  But MBS have been so weak vs Treasuries in the bigger-picture that they don't need any major reason to outperform when bonds are selling off but remaining inside last week's range.

Actually, it's also worth mentioning that the week's most important economic report is coming out tomorrow morning at 10am ET.  ISM Non-Manufacturing will have a chance to add to today's weakness if it beats the 53.5 forecast, and perhaps even if it only improves on the 52.6 previous reading.  If it misses the mark, it will be interesting to see how much bonds are willing to react.  If "not much," then we'll really know that the market is tripped up by this week's supply of new issuance. 


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
101-17 : -0-03
Treasuries
10 YR
1.7980 : +0.0100
Pricing as of 11/4/19 7:08PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
9:23AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Bonds at Weakest Levels

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Victor Burek  :  "U.S. CONSIDERS REMOVING SOME TARIFFS ON CHINA: FT"
Brian McFarlane  :  "that's why I never knock Freddie, they have some pretty awesome carve outs"
Tom Schwab  :  "Todd Haynes for post of the day!"
Todd Haynes  :  "Check with a lender that uses LP. I've been told that Freddie Mac will allow this and not ask for payment history. The problem may be occupancy"
Eric "Leo" Sayer  :  "Anyone see a change in pricing from Friday or are you the same? (Initial pricing only if they RP'd for the worse)"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Nov 05
8:30 International trade mm $ (bl) Sep -52.5 -54.9
10:00 ISM N-Mfg PMI * Oct 53.5 52.6
10:00 ISM N-Mfg Bus Act * Oct 55.0 55.2
13:00 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) 38