Chicago PMI isn't always more important that PCE inflation.  After all Core PCE is the Fed's favorite big-picture inflation reading (the thing they want to see at 2.0%) and inflation is one of the key motivations for hiking/cutting the Fed's policy rate.  In fact, just yesterday, Powell told reporters that the only real reason the Fed would have to move the policy rate at this point would be a substantial change in inflation.

Powell also told reporters the committee (that's the Federal Open Market Committee aka FOMC) doesn't see much of a chance of inflation increasing in a way that would require policy action.  He even said that inflation expectations appear to be settling in under 2%.  

Here's the point: if the Fed is confident enough in the absence of inflation to share such conclusions openly (not to mention the 3 rate cuts we've seen during 2019--a year with ongoing economic growth and all-time highs in stocks), it's getting to be less of a hot-button issue.  This is very similar to the way inflation was viewed from 2011 through 2016.  It just wasn't a big market mover during that time.

As such, any big beats in the upcoming inflation data would be taken with a grain of salt by financial markets.  It's not an interesting narrative for traders--much like ongoing labor market strength.  Chicago PMI, on the other hand, provides a much more useful barometer for the business cycle.  Hmmm... It's also actually called the Chicago Business Barometer.  Coincidence?!


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
101-15 : +0-05
Treasuries
10 YR
1.7330 : -0.0630
Pricing as of 10/31/19 8:33AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Thursday, Oct 31
8:30 Employment costs (%) Q3 0.7 0.6
8:30 Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%)* Sep 1.7 1.8
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 215 212
9:45 Chicago PMI * Oct 48.0 47.1