The only way to read anything overly dramatic into today's bond trading would simply be to observe where it falls in the bigger picture.  In other words, this sort of stuff.  There were no major reactions to today's econ data--not that we'd expect them--and muted reactions to trade related headlines.  Notably, the S&P tagged another new all-time high and bonds didn't even seem to mind much.

Today's relative calm could be due to the fact that bonds have sold-off as much as they want to sell-off to get in position for tomorrow's Fed announcement.  With the rate cut being a foregone conclusion, the market turns its attention to the verbiage of the announcement and Powell's press conference.  He's expected to acknowledge trade war progress and improved odds of a Brexit compromise (even if no guarantees on either front).  All things being equal, those are hawkish expectations, and thus they help to explain a measure of the recent bias toward higher rates.

We know that the bond market can often get in an extreme position ahead of the Fed only to end up moving back in the other direction afterward.  As such, we can hope that's what we're seeing this time around, but the better bet is to simply remember and be prepared for the fact that bonds can go both ways, multiple times on Fed day, and we may not even see the eventual momentum until the end of the week.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-31 : +0-02
Treasuries
10 YR
1.8370 : -0.0160
Pricing as of 10/29/19 5:31PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
11:09AM  :  Bonds Back to Unchanged Levels

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Sung Kim  :  "btw MG - serious kudos, i blasted last weeks marketnewsletter to my dbase last night and was inundated with inquiries."
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- IF A DEAL IS NOT SIGNED IN CHILE, THAT DOES NOT MEAN US-CHINA TALKS HAVE FALLEN APART, JUST THAT MORE TIME IS NEEDED -U.S. ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- EXCLUSIVE-US-CHINA 'PHASE ONE' TRADE AGREEMENT MAY NOT BE SIGNED AT CHILE APEC MEETING IN NOVEMBER, BUT PROGRESS IS BEING MADE -U.S. ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Oct 29
9:00 CaseShiller 20 mm SA (%) Aug -0.2 0.0 0.0
10:00 Pending Sales Index Sep 108.7 107.3
10:00 Consumer confidence * Oct 125.9 128.0 125.1
10:00 Pending Home Sales (%) Sep +1.5 0.9 1.6
Wednesday, Oct 30
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 241.7
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 2076.9
8:15 ADP National Employment (k)* Oct 120 135
8:30 GDP Advance (%)* Q3 1.6 2.0
14:00 FOMC rate decision (%)* N/A 1.625 1.875