Let's face it.  It makes sense for the average bond trader to be more indecisive than normal right now.  A no-deal Brexit was avoided this week (bad for bonds), but a Brexit deal couldn't make it through British parliament in time to beat the EU's deadline (good for bonds).  Economic data hasn't been too strong (good for bonds), but it hasn't accelerated into weaker territory, for the most part (bad).  There's still no US/China trade deal (good), but progress is apparently being made in that direction (bad).

Away from actual events and data, we could do a similar song and dance with tradings levels and trends.  For instance, yields have been trending higher for 3 weeks (bad), but they have yet to move back up to the mid-September highs (good).  Momentum metrics have been oversold in some regards (good), but that has yet to result in any meaningful bounce back toward stronger levels (bad).

Top all this off with an important Fed announcement next week and the ongoing potential for unexpected headlines surrounding high-volatility market movers like Brexit and trade wars, and you have the makings for an impressionable, defensive, fearful set of attitudes in the bond market.  That's a baseline that's no big deal in the absence of any compelling arguments, but it resulted in weakness today as stocks surged quickly higher in the middle of the day.  European bond market weakness and Trump trade tweets added to the upward pressure on yields heading into the noon hour.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-32 : -0-02
Treasuries
10 YR
1.8000 : +0.0340
Pricing as of 10/25/19 4:55PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
11:53AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing
8:57AM  :  Trump Tweets Lead to Some Bond Buying

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "Just depends on the data. Their main focus is jobs and inflation. Those reports haven't been terrible. They could always be more or less dovish than expected, of course. The biggest determinant is what the market is expecting. In this case, I think the market is indeed probably expecting them to calm down and "hawk up" a bit, even if only microscopically, largely due to trade progress and Brexit deescalation."
Edgar Winter Is Coming  :  "MG: It seems to me the data has been on the week side since the last Fed meeting - accurate? If so could we see a more dovish than expected Fed decision next week?"
Paul Martin  :  "China Deal...Brexit Extension....No China Deal.....Brexit extension blocked......it's like watching 2 tennis matches simultaneously! Meanwhile...econ data weaker and inflation in check....."

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Oct 25
10:00 Consumer Inflation Expectations (5yr) (%) Oct 2.3 2.2
10:00 Consumer Sentiment (ip) Oct 95.5 96.0 96.0
10:00 Consumer Inflation Expectations (1yr) (%) Oct 2.5 2.5