Yesterday saw an extension of the recent selling trend in bonds with yields hitting the highest levels in more than a month.  One might argue that yesterday was actually a breakout from the consolidation trend we've been tracking, but there are two caveats to that approach.  First off, we normally like to see a bigger, more sustained break with higher volume if we're going to confirm a shift in trend.  Yesterday's volume was actually fairly low.  And secondly, the lines involved in charting a consolidation pattern are bit more mystical and subjective compared to the simple act of tracking trends and momentum.  

In other words, I could make a compelling case for adjusting almost any trend line I place on the charts, even if only slightly, but there's no subjectivity involved in saying 7 out of the last 8 trading days have seen yields close at higher levels vs the previous session.

Either way, bonds are clearly under pressure even if not quite as much as seen during the mid-September sell-off.  That sell-off actually provides two important ceilings overhead as we stand guard against further weakness.  1.80% resulted in a high volume, high volatility bounce on the way up and 1.90%, of course, was the top of the yield range at the time.  Interestingly enough, 1.80 arguably provided a supportive ceiling yesterday as well, even though we began to break out of the consolidation pattern (yellow lines).

20191022 open

What will it take for these ceilings to hold?  That depends.  Which ceiling are we talking about?  The higher we go, the better the chances become.  Even then, the only ceiling that really matters in the longer term is 1.90%.  Staying below that means the 2019 rally continues to consolidate as opposed to reverse course.

In terms of events likely to inform the range, today brings another important Brexit related vote at 2pm ET (or thereabouts.  It's not a hard and fast time).  The vote would be to determine if the new Brexit deal principles are supported by the lower house of British Parliament.  Reports suggest there's a decent chance this passes.   If it does, Parliament moves on to a 2nd vote on Johnson's proposed timeline of Brexit-related milestones.  Simply put, he'd like to get this all done by October 31st without having to take the extension from the EU.  That's a longshot, but if it happens, expect pain for bonds (probably).  

Also keep in mind that a clear picture may not materialize until the end of the US trading day.  Unless something about the time frame changes between now and then, that means floating overnight carries more risk than normal.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-31 : +0-03
Treasuries
10 YR
1.7680 : -0.0240
Pricing as of 10/22/19 9:30AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Oct 22
10:00 Existing home sales (ml)* Sep 5.45 5.49
10:00 Exist. home sales % chg (%)* Sep -0.7 1.3
13:00 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 40