Yesterday brought the highest yields in a month as Brexit-related optimism swelled early in the overnight session.  At issue: British PM Johnson and EU negotiators reached "a deal."  Great!  Right?  Brexit is solved?  But wait...  British parliament would still need to sign off on the deal, and the news was quick to point out the relative impossibility of such a thing.  As such, overnight market movement began to reverse course even before US markets opened.

That brings us to today.  Traders know that an easy passage of the current deal is unlikely.  But they also know that the deal could be adjusted or debated in such a way that passage is not impossible.  Adding to the uncertainty is the fact that the EU could respond in one of two ways if there's no deal by the end of the month (grant an extension that the UK would undoubtedly have requested, or simply pull the trigger on a "no deal" Brexit).  Either way, as British law currently sits, Parliament has to decide on "deal or no deal" by tomorrow.

All of the above makes today and the upcoming weekend fraught with uncertainty for traders.  Nothing would have more potential to move markets today than a compelling update that adds clarity to this weekend's probabilities.  And nothing will be more actively traded on Monday morning than the outcome of Saturday's parliamentary session.  All bonds can really do today is watch and wait for the aforementioned "compelling updates."  Without them, there's little incentive to move too far away from the staging area just below the highest yields in a month (and right on the edge of the current consolidation trend).

20191018 open


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
101-04 : -0-01
Treasuries
10 YR
1.7520 : -0.0030
Pricing as of 10/18/19 8:59AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Friday, Oct 18
10:00 Leading index chg mm (%) Sep 0.1 -0.3