There were two key parts to today's market movement.  The first was the general push back against Friday's bond market weakness courtesy of less upbeat details emerging in the US/China trade talks.  Long story short, China said it wants another round of talks before signing the phase one deal unveiled on Friday.  It also had at least one other stipulation regarding December's planned tariff hikes.  Bonds logically cheered that news, ultimately undoing ALL of Friday's domestic session losses.

The 2nd component to today's movement was an even bigger push back in the other direction courtesy of renewed Brexit optimism.  This hit European bonds like a sack full of quarters mid-morning but US bonds still got the nickels.  It didn't help that domestic equities markets also happened to be surging.  

Once yields crested Friday's levels, technically-motivated selling helped the weakness extend just a bit more and tha was that.  10yr Treasuries ended the day up 3bps in yields at 1.773% and Fannie 3.0 MBS fell about an eighth of a point to end at 101-03 (101.09).  

Tomorrow brings the week's biggest-ticket econ report in the form of Retail Sales at 8:30am.  Any big beat or miss is at risk of being traded accordingly (i.e. stronger data could keep upward pressure on rates).


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
101-03 : -0-03
Treasuries
10 YR
1.7730 : +0.0200
Pricing as of 10/15/19 4:58PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
2:48PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprices Increasingly Likely
10:33AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing For Some Lenders

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "i had to buy some consumer goods last month, so be careful!"
Rob Downs  :  "I think what MG is trying to say is that Retail Sales is going to be a big miss tomorrow and we should all float. ;)"
Matthew Graham  :  "If you haven't seen a reprice yet, locking on days where reprices are likely is never really a bad move. Whether or not to lock in general depends on your clients' risk tolerance. There's no way to know if it's a good move with respect to where rates may go in the near future because we can't predict the future. Working on it though."

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Oct 16
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 252.2
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 2418.1
8:30 Retail Sales (%)* Sep 0.3 0.4
10:00 NAHB housing market indx Oct 68 68
10:00 Business Inventories (% ) Aug 0.2 0.4