The bureau of labor statistics called and mailed about 60k households a little less than a month ago to ask them about their jobs.  Only 3.5% of the workers in those households reported that they wanted a job but didn't have one.  That's the lowest level in 50 years, and it stole the headlines today from the headline payroll count (incidentally, based on a survey of businesses that vastly improves the data integrity and sample size--thus the reason traders prefer NFP to the unemployment rate).

Perhaps that's why the bond market was able to shrug off the apparently stellar jobs headlines.  NFP didn't beat its forecast by enough to count and wages slumped at their fastest pace in nearly 2 years.  

As I'm fond of repeating, a strong labor market is old news.  The only significant labor market development would be a confirmed change for the worse.  Meanwhile, we had several other reports highlighting economic pressure that could eventually lead to a labor market slump unless something changes fairly soon.  With that in mind, it's no surprise to see 10yr yields near 1.50% and 30yr fixed mortgage rates at 3.625%.

Data remains front and center, but there's not much of it next week.  The Treasury auction cycle could create some volatility, and any big change in the consumer inflation data could have a bearing on Fed rate cut probabilities.  Apart from that, we're on guard for unexpected headlines and other geopolitical developments. 


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
101-31 : +0-05
Treasuries
10 YR
1.5240 : -0.0120
Pricing as of 10/4/19 4:23PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
8:37AM  :  First Move is Weaker After Mixed NFP

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - BOSTIC SAYS FED OFFICIALS TRYING TO DETERMINE IF ECONOMY IS HEADED FOR A SOFT LANDING OR STEEP DECLINE"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - ROSENGREN SAYS DATA IN RECENT WEEK IS NOT A COMPLETE SURPRISE; TARIFFS ARE AFFECTING MANUFACTURING, EXPORTS"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - FED'S ROSENGREN SAYS WHEN LABOR MARKETS ARE TIGHT WOULD EXPECT WAGES AND PRICES TO GO UP OVER TIME"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - FED'S ROSENGREN SAYS WE HAVE A VERY LOW UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, GETTING ABOUT THE KIND OF EMPLOYMENT GROWTH THAT WOULD EXPECT IN STABLE ECONOMY ; CNBC INTERVIEW"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Oct 04
8:30 Non-farm payrolls (k)* Sep +136 145 130
8:30 Unemployment rate mm (%)* Sep 3.5 3.7 3.7
8:30 Average earnings mm (%) Sep 0.0 0.3 0.4