In the day just passed, the bond market rallied impressively following an exceptionally weak ISM services report.  That was the 2nd of the two ISM purchasing managers' indices this week and both were more than merely "slightly off the mark."  The numbers were low enough to ramp up the market's fears of an impending recession, or whatever you call the initial slide toward a recession where the bulk of the drama in markets occurs. 

In the day ahead markets will ask themselves two things.  First, they'll ask how today's jobs report fits in the narrative of recession concern.  Labor markets have been a bastion of hope, along with a consumer that continues to be resilient.  Visible cracks in the jobs market could have dire implications.  It seems that stocks are worried about those implications given the S&P's position inside its broader consolidation trend (the dotted lines on the orange line below).  

20191004 open

The dotted lines on the 10yr line, on the other hand, are fairly arbitrary.  And that brings us to the 2nd question markets will ask.  Even if the jobs report is strong.  Does that mean we fully avoid worrying about the labor market confirming what other parts of the economy are already telling us or merely that we avoid worrying about it YET?


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
101-27 : +0-02
Treasuries
10 YR
1.5310 : -0.0050
Pricing as of 10/4/19 8:27AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Friday, Oct 04
8:30 Non-farm payrolls (k)* Sep 145 130
8:30 Unemployment rate mm (%)* Sep 3.7 3.7
8:30 Average earnings mm (%) Sep 0.3 0.4