There's never a way to be 100% sure that a consolidation trend will continue to guide the highs and lows in the bond market for any certain amount of time, but sometimes it seems like it should be.  This week and especially this morning were two such occasions.  Here was the chart from the morning's commentary:

20190927 open

and here's how the day ended up:

20190927 close

In other words, yields went just about everywhere inside the consolidation trend without actually breaking it.  

The adherence to the equivocal trend is made all the more interesting by the presence of seemingly important data (PCE and Durable Goods).  Upon closer inspection, however, the takeaway from those reports could be argued in either direction.  Beyond that, we saw much bigger volume come into play after headlines regarding a potential White House plan to block certain US investments in China.  

The fact that the day's biggest volume spike was reserved for such a toothless headline is a sign of the times (or of the prevalence of an initial reaction that's heavily tainted by algorithmic trading).  Bonds figured it out quickly and didn't really move.  For stocks, it was the day's turning point.    Either way, the message is that both sides of the market are waiting to find out "what's going to happen to global economy already!" as if a single piece of data or news is going to make the difference or meaningfully shift the narrative.  Sure, such a piece of news could eventually exist, but it clearly didn't exist today.  As such, the consolidation makes total sense and we'll survive to fight another day.

Next week brings the typically meaningful round of data seen on the 1st week of any given month.  NFP is the headliner, of course, but the ISM reports aren't far behind these days.  In addition to the data, the month/quarter-end trading environment could be more volatile than normal.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
101-13 : +0-05
Treasuries
10 YR
1.6870 : +0.0020
Pricing as of 9/27/19 8:45PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
8:52AM  :  Modest Improvements After Week's Biggest Data

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "most lenders are off compared to 9/12 for rates of 3.625% or less (if you're looking at rates that low) due to poorer performance in lower MBS coupons during that selling spree."

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Sep 27
8:30 Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%)* Aug +1.8 1.8 1.6
8:30 Durable goods (%)* Aug 0.2 -1.0 2.0
8:30 Nondefense ex-air (%)* Aug -0.2 0.0 0.2
10:00 Consumer Inflation Expectations (1yr) (%) Sep 2.8 2.8
10:00 Consumer Inflation Expectations (5yr) (%) Sep 2.4 2.3
10:00 Consumer Sentiment (ip) Sep 93.2 92.0 92.0