In the day just passed, bonds did their best to make it seem as if they were paying attention to various headlines and events without actually moving much at all.  By midnight, yields had already unwound nearly half of Wednesday's weakness, and for no particular reason!  The domestic session didn't add much to the gains, although a case could be made for political headlines providing general guidance.  Still, that was more of a stock market sort of thing. 

At first glance, the stock market is in a similar position as bond yields.  Both rose fairly quickly at the beginning of September after having fallen abruptly in August.  Both have been consolidating after coming off September's highs.  Here's one way to look at the consolidation in S&P futures:

20190927 open2

The lower consolidation line is much less clearly defined here, but the 2960 pivot point is about as good as it gets from a technical standpoint.  If S&P futures break below that level by more than a few points, there could be additional selling momentum purely for technical reasons.

The most relevant pivot point for 10yr yields is far more central.  In fact, it's in the dead center of the late-summertime range, and very close to today's levels.  

20190927 open

Clearly, bonds will have choose a line to break by the end of the month, but unlike a breakout in stocks, I'm not sure how much follow-through I'd expect in bonds.  In bonds' case, I think the consolidation is an actual byproduct of legitimate indecision.  The Fed isn't lying when it says the next 6 weeks of econ data are important.  But that doesn't mean we should just look at the first week or two of data and make a decision about the next big move.  We'll need to see several weeks of data in conjunction with the various unexpected political developments that are sure to appear before getting a better sense of broader momentum.  1.445% to 1.90% feels like more than enough of a sideways range to act an an incubator for those trading strategies.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
101-09 : +0-02
Treasuries
10 YR
1.6960 : +0.0110
Pricing as of 9/27/19 10:20AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Friday, Sep 27
8:30 Core PCE (m/m) (%)* Aug 0.2 0.2
8:30 Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%)* Aug 1.8 1.6
8:30 Durable goods (%)* Aug -1.0 2.0
8:30 Nondefense ex-air (%)* Aug 0.0 0.2
10:00 Consumer Inflation Expectations (1yr) (%) Sep 2.8
10:00 Consumer Inflation Expectations (5yr) (%) Sep 2.3
10:00 Consumer Sentiment (ip) Sep 92.0 92.0