In the week just passed, the bond market underwent a nice correction after the previous week pushed yields higher at the fastest pace in years.  To put that move in context, August was the best month for the bond market in years and the big week of selling that ended on 9/13 was largely a correction to August's strength.  Last week, then, was a "correction to that correction," and a sign that bond buyers are still alive, as long as they see enticing levels.

In the week ahead, traders will continue to reflect on last week's message from the Fed: economic data is the biggest game in town over the next 6 weeks.  Powell did his best to leave us with the sense that things could go either way, both for the economy and the Fed policy response.  He also continued placing emphasis on overseas weakness as a source of inspiration for US economic weakness (and thus, bond market strength).

There are several US economic reports on tap, but they don't really get interesting until Friday's Durable Goods and Core PCE inflation data.  Before the domestic week began, however, troublingly weak European PMI data prompted a strong start in bonds.  This was easily enough to keep the "correction to the correction" trend alive.  Whereas we were watching and hoping to break below 1.74/1.75% last week, this week's analogous line in the sand is 1.67%.  Early gains have brought us right to that doorstep.

20190923 open

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.0
101-15 : +0-04
10 YR
1.6800 : -0.0730
Pricing as of 9/23/19 10:08AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Sep 24
9:00 Monthly Home Price yy (%) Jul 4.8
9:00 CaseShiller 20 yy (% ) Jul 2.2 2.1
10:00 Consumer confidence * Sep 133.5 135.1
Wednesday, Sep 25
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 269.7
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 2274.1
10:00 New home sales-units mm (ml)* Aug 0.660 0.635
10:00 New home sales chg mm (%)* Aug 3.5 -12.8
13:00 5-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 41
Thursday, Sep 26
8:30 GDP Final (%) Q2 2.0 2.0
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 212 208
8:30 Continued jobless claims (ml) w/e 1.665 1.661
10:00 Pending Sales Index Aug 105.6
10:00 Pending Home Sales (%) Aug 0.9 -2.5
13:00 7-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 32
Friday, Sep 27
8:30 Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%)* Aug 1.8 1.6
8:30 Durable goods (%)* Aug -1.0 2.0
8:30 Nondefense ex-air (%)* Aug 0.0 0.2
10:00 Consumer Sentiment (ip) Sep 92.0 92.0