In the day just passed, bonds began the week with a resolute sell-off that broke through an important overhead ceiling in 10yr yields (1.62).  Weakness was present from the start of the European session through the end of the domestic session with 3 distinct phases (EU open, US open, EU close).  This suggests initial limited weakness in Europe that was subsequently pulled higher by US traders after 8am ET.  After Europe closed, Treasuries were more free to do what they wanted to do: sell more!

In the day ahead, we'll be watching bonds closely for signs of additional momentum toward higher yields.  There's never any way to tell whether we're looking at a correction that only lasts 3 days or merely the "first 3 days" of a much more substantial correction.  Fairly convincing arguments could be made for either case right now, so the "wait and see" camp is the best place to hang out for now.  

In terms of levels that can help us pay attention to what's going on, it's pretty simple: anything between 1.62% and 1.66% means we're in limbo.  Yields may have a tough time finding the will to move back below 1.62% given the upcoming Treasury supply and European Central Bank announcement in the coming days.  That means holding below 1.66 is probably the most bullish signal we could hope for (assuming no additional, unexpected market mover comes along to give bonds a friendly boost.

20190910 open


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
101-19 : -0-01
Treasuries
10 YR
1.6460 : +0.0240
Pricing as of 9/10/19 9:14AMEST