Bonds were breathing easy by the time the domestic session got underway.  Before that, they kicked off the overnight session in lower yield territory.  Modest gains meant a friendly break below the potentially troubling resistance trend that had developed over the past 2.5 days.    Pictures are worth more than words here, so here is an hourly 10yr candlestick chart as of this morning:

2019-8-20 open

Very little changed after that.  Notably, this is the 2nd straight day where Treasuries have followed European bonds overnight and then mostly side-stepped through the domestic hours.  This won't necessarily be a trend, and it's not so much interesting as it is a reflection of the absence of domestic market movers during that time.  

That same absence won't be intact tomorrow as the Fed Minutes hit at 2pm ET.  We're conditioned to view the Fed as a big potential market mover, but we may well wonder what they could say tomorrow that would shed any new light on the current narrative.   They've already cut rates.  We figure they're willing to do it again if market conditions don't suddenly make it seem like a bad idea.  And the minutes will probably confirm as much. 

Still, one can never be sure that some phrase or factoid in a Fed communication won't be pounced upon by traders and media, ultimately leading to big momentum in one direction or the other.  For now, it's something to be aware of in terms of intraday volatility only.  It would have to be completely out of left field for anything in tomorrow's minutes to change the overall narrative and the corresponding market trends (which are "sideways at long-term lows" for interest rates, until further notice).


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
101-21 : +0-03
Treasuries
10 YR
1.5520 : -0.0460
Pricing as of 8/20/19 5:40PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
4:44PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: One or Two Lenders Could be Considering Reprices
10:41AM  :  Yields Follow Stocks Lower (Or Vice Versa?)

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Aug 21
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 252.6
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 2742.9
10:00 Exist. home sales % chg (%)* Jul 2.5 -1.7
10:00 Existing home sales (ml)* Jul 5.39 5.27