Bonds digested the week's busiest day of economic data, by far, today.  But markets in general are only interested in data that changes the economic narrative. Today's only real candidate in that regard would have been a surprisingly weak Retail Sales report. Since we didn't get that (it was stronger), bonds underwent a token sell-off and were quickly right back to paying attention to other things. 

Europe volunteered to be one of those "other things" today with talk of central bank stimulus from an ECB official.  There were also a few blows traded in the trade war saga with China vowing "countermeasures" and Trump tweeting that any trade deal had to be on "our terms." No game changers there, but they certainly didn't hurt bonds.

The afternoon saw a snowball buying spree when 10yr yields moved past the overnight lows. The rally kept rolling until yields hit 1.475% before bouncing back up to 1.53% before settling somewhere in between by the close.

Refreshingly, MBS have been doing a MUCH BETTER job of keeping pace with broader bond market movement. Lenders won't necessarily be able to do that much justice, but why would they if they're already slammed and any bigger rate improvements will just cause lots of lock fallout? That said, they definitely have some room to give pricing a bump, and they'll likely do just that on any day where bonds are stable-to-stronger.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
101-27 : +0-10
Treasuries
10 YR
1.5020 : -0.0790
Pricing as of 8/15/19 5:33PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
1:58PM  :  Snowball Buying. 10yr Briefly Under 1.50%
12:50PM  :  Europe Leaves US Bonds in Much Stronger Territory
8:45AM  :  Bonds Lose Some Ground After Stronger Econ Data

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Michael Dormer  :  "This is getting nuts."
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - FED'S BULLARD SAYS TRADE WAR CREATING A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY OUTSIDE THE U.S., WITH NATURAL FLIGHT TO SAFETY DRIVING U.S. RATES LOWER"
Caroline Roy  :  "i mean, today's charts are almost scary to look at. locking sort of feels foolish, but so does floating."

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Aug 15
8:30 Retail Sales (%)* Jul 0.7 0.3 0.4
8:30 Philly Fed Business Index * Aug 16.8 10.0 21.8
8:30 Labor Costs Preliminary (%) Q2 2.4 2.0 -1.6
8:30 NY Fed Manufacturing Aug +4.8 3.00 4.30
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 220 214 209
9:15 Industrial Production (%) Jul -0.2 0.1 0.0
10:00 NAHB housing market indx Aug 66 65 65
10:00 Business Inventories (% ) Jun 0.0 0.1 0.3