In the day just passed, bond markets primarily reacted to overseas economic data with many of the reports in Europe coming in flat to weaker.  Combined with the weakest Chinese manufacturing data in years, it was enough to push bonds through recent resistance levels and to new low yields since 2016.  The domestic hours were especially influenced by a massive drop in equities.

In the day ahead, we'll get the biggest slate of domestic economic data of the week, led by Retail Dales and Philly Fed at 8:30am.  The consumer spending sector is arguably the last bastion of economic health in the US along with stable employment numbers.  Any cracks in Retail Sales would thus be a big deal whereas an unexpected surge might not do too much to hurt bonds given the laundry list of other concerns.  That's not to say stronger numbers couldn't cause bond market weakness, simply that the weakness might not be in line with what past precedent would suggest.  

Markets are less preoccupied at the moment with what every little bit of data means for Fed rate policy and more concerned with the general risk of recession.  This can be seen in this morning's chart of 10yr yields vs Fed rate cut expectations for 2019 (via 2020 Fed Funds Futures).  Stocks are thrown in for good measure.  Note that Fed rate cuts aren't any more likely than they were a week ago while 10yr yields have continued to decline.

2019-8-15 open


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
101-17 : -0-01
Treasuries
10 YR
1.5780 : -0.0030
Pricing as of 8/15/19 8:35AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Thursday, Aug 15
8:30 Retail Sales (%)* Jul 0.3 0.4
8:30 Philly Fed Business Index * Aug 10.0 21.8
8:30 Productivity Preliminary (%) Q2 1.5 3.4
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 214 209
9:15 Capacity Utilization (%) Jul 77.8 77.9
9:15 Industrial Production (%) Jul 0.1 0.0
10:00 NAHB housing market indx Aug 65 65
10:00 Business Inventories (% ) Jun 0.1 0.3