In the day just passed, bonds put in their second biggest rally day of the past 3 weeks (the crazy ones) and their biggest rally day since yields bottomed out last week.  Strikingly, there was no major singular reason for the move, unless we wish to speak in generalities such as "global growth concerns."  Still, that probably doesn't quite capture the essence of bond buying motivation as it relates to yesterday's trading session.

In the day ahead, we'll be treated to the week's first economic data in the form of the Consumer Price Index--an inflation report that has managed to be a big market mover at times in the past.  The market movement potential is significantly lower at the moment, however.  There are a few reasons for this.  The first is those proverbial "global growth concerns."  Simply put, bonds have rallied for reasons that transcend domestic economic data.  Beyond that, if we take a step back, inflation has really been boring for years and years.  It just happened to be terrifying back when many traders or their mentors were first learning about the connection between inflation and bond yields.

2019-8-13 open 1

That's not to say CPI can't cause a noticeable reaction if it's stronger or weaker than expected, simply that the reaction is likely to be contained well within the existing consolidation range.  A weaker response (within reason) would actually help mortgage lenders set today's rates more aggressively (because the recent rally has been too much of a good thing).

2019-8-13 open 2

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.0
101-16 : -0-04
10 YR
1.6660 : +0.0260
Pricing as of 8/13/19 8:33AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Aug 13
8:30 Core CPI (Annual) (%)* Jul 2.1 2.1
8:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) (%)* Jul 0.3 0.1