In the day just passed, bonds gyrated in response to (and in anticipation of) updates from the European Central Bank (ECB).  Anticipation for a friendly announcement took rates lower in the overnight session, and the announcement itself confirmed the move (i.e. yields went even lower after the official announcement).  ECB Pres Draghi's press conference was another story.  In short, he wasn't as friendly as markets expected, thus putting upward pressure on yields.

In the day ahead, bonds will either mentally adjourn for the summertime weekend (most likely) or they will consider the implications of yesterday's weakness.  If they adjourn mentally, we should see an uneventful sideways drift that leaves yields within 2-3bps of yesterday's latest levels.  That would put the prospective range at 2.07-2.11, roughly.  In fact, we could still see such a range even if bonds are considering the implications of yesterday's weakness, but there would be a clear effort on the part of 10yr yields to avoid breaking much below 2.07%.

2.07% (or 2.06-2.07, as I usually say) has been the most important pivot point of June/July.  In early June, it was mostly a floor.  Since the June 19th Fed meeting, it was mostly a ceiling until it finally gave way a few days after the big jobs report early in July.  Since then, it's seen action from above an below.  Today's overnight lows were 2.063%, which sets the pivot point up to act like a floor.  If we bounce there, it's one small suggestion that the prevailing trend is best seen as a gradual uptrend (i.e. yellow lines).

2019-7-26 open

If there's a silver lining, it's that the bigger-picture trend is much more undecided.

2019-7-26 open2


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-24 : +0-02
Treasuries
10 YR
2.0670 : -0.0070
Pricing as of 7/26/19 9:35AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Friday, Jul 26
8:30 GDP Advance (%)* Q2 1.8 3.1