In the day just passed, bonds managed to rally in the overnight session with help from weaker European economic data, which fueled expectations for an even friendlier central bank announcement than was already expected.  Weaker domestic data added to the gains at 9:45am, but wasn't able to push yields below the previous session's lows.

In the day ahead, bonds begin with yields having been pushed below Tuesday's lows!  Credit goes to Europe once again as the European Central Bank (ECB) was indeed able to convince the market of its dovish intent with the 7:45am policy statement.  Traders expect Mario Draghi to reiterate the friendly message in his press conference at 8:30am.  At the same time, the week's biggest domestic data hits in the form of Durable Goods.

Today's charts show two different looks at US 10yr yields vs Germany's 10yr yield.  Depending on the y-axis scaling, it's easy to see plenty of correlation as well as plenty of resistance on the part of Treasuries to the notion of being pulled much lower.  At a certain point, that could change if the traders who are pushing back are forced to cover short positions and capitulate to the strong bond-buying momentum.

2019-7-25 open

2019-7-25 open2


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
101-06 : +0-08
Treasuries
10 YR
2.0130 : -0.0370
Pricing as of 7/25/19 8:28AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Thursday, Jul 25
8:30 Nondefense ex-air (%)* Jun 0.2 0.5
8:30 Durable goods (%)* Jun 0.7 -1.3
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 219 216
13:00 7-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 32