In the day just passed, bonds enjoyed one of their best rally days in recent weeks as the stock market endured its 2nd weakest day since May.  Stocks weren't the exclusive motivation, but there's no way to pin down cause and effect without descending into conjecture.  Leading suspects include a technical bounce at 2.15% (i.e. traders sold as much as they were willing to sell after the strong jobs number 2 weeks ago), a global supply chain warning from the IMF, and a now-tabled impeachment vote in the House yesterday evening.  If we had to pick 2, however, they'd be the stock sell-off and the technical bounce in bonds.

In the day ahead, we'll consider a technical bounce on the other side of this week's range.  Rather than make it down to the 2.02% or 1.975% levels that were more relevant in the past few weeks, 10yr yields have thus far stalled out at 2.037% on two prominent occasions (today's overnight session being one of them).  Without much more by way of actionable economic data this week and given the fact that a certain portion of the trading community will be wrapping things up for the week today, 2.037% and 2.15% could be locked-in as the bookends for the next mini-consolidation.  Whether that can last all the way to Fed day in just under 2 weeks remains to be seen.

2019-7-18 open


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-21 : -0-03
Treasuries
10 YR
2.0730 : +0.0120
Pricing as of 7/18/19 8:46AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Thursday, Jul 18
8:30 Philly Fed Business Index * Jul 5.0 0.3
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 216 209
10:00 Leading index chg mm (%) Jun 0.1 0.0