In the day just passed, a strong Retail Sales report kept the pressure on bond markets to remain in the negative trend that prevailed last week.  Yields have been moving progressively higher since the June 5th jobs report catalyzed a confirmed break of a narrow, consolidation pattern at multi-year yield lows.  Ultimately, however, 2.15% remained intact as a firm ceiling for the 4th straight day and bonds were able to recover a majority of the morning's losses.

In the day ahead, we'll see if traders have any inclination to build on that resilience.  As seen in today's chart, modest strength early in the session brings yields right in line with the lower boundary of the current negative trend (the "bad vibes" mentioned in the title).  They'd need to break below 2.065--convincingly--to make any profound statement about a shift back toward "good vibes."

2019-7-17 open

There are no big market movers on tap in terms of economic data.  The rest of the week is sparse in that regard as well.  Combine that with the fact that it's mid July and we should expect vacation absences to have some effect on participation among traders.  What's the implication?  Nothing necessarily, but lighter volume/participation can give way to movement that doesn't always make good logical sense based on the fundamental and technical motivations available. 


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-19 : +0-04
Treasuries
10 YR
2.0890 : -0.0310
Pricing as of 7/17/19 9:21AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Jul 17
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 275.6
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 1799.7
8:30 House starts mm: change (%) Jun -0.9
8:30 Housing starts number mm (ml)* Jun 1.261 1.269
8:30 Building permits: number (ml)* Jun 1.300 1.299
8:30 Build permits: change mm (%)* Jun 0.7