Today was one of those unofficial 3-day weekend type of Mondays with light volume, light trader participation, and "drifty" trading momentum.  A market holiday in Tokyo (Asian market hours' requisite hub for cash Treasury trading) didn't help start the day off strong for the US bond market.  but even after the European session began, volumes remained well shy of recent averages.  

The onset of domestic trading saw progressively more activity but it was really only the 9:30am NYSE open that brought any appearance of conviction.  Even then, it wasn't much conviction (just over 1bp of improvement for 10yr yields).  

We tend to see opening/closing bells garner the biggest moves of the day when traders are tuned out amid an absence of meaningful data, participation and volume.  With this being peak vacation season, the deficit of participation at trade desks will remain a factor.  But tomorrow brings quite a bit more data than today, including the important Retail Sales numbers.  Even with thinner staffing, there's a better chance of a logical response (weaker sales = stronger bonds and vice versa).


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-17 : +0-04
Treasuries
10 YR
2.0900 : -0.0160
Pricing as of 7/15/19 4:41PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:30AM  :  Moderate Gains at NYSE Open

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Ira Selwin  :  "I think it's a call in only, but the guides are pretty clear on that - Only subordinate liens used to purchase the property may be paid off and included in the new mortgage. Exceptions are allowed for paying off a Property Assessed Clean Energy (PACE) loan or other debt (secured or unsecured) that was used solely for energy-related improvements"
Dustin McAlister  :  "does fannie have an email for questions like Fha or is it call in only?"
Dustin McAlister  :  "If someone took out a 1st and 2nd in 2007 to buy the home, then later refinanced just the 2nd to a lower rate (no cash out), and now wants to refinance the original 1st from 2007 and the current 2nd mortgage is that still a rate term?"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Jul 15
8:30 NY Fed Manufacturing Jul +4.3 2.00 -8.60
Tuesday, Jul 16
8:30 Retail Sales (%)* Jun 0.1 0.5
8:30 Import prices mm (%)* Jun -0.7 -0.3
8:30 Retail Sales (ex-autos) (%) Jun 0.1 0.5
8:30 Export prices mm (%)* Jun -0.2 -0.2
9:15 Capacity Utilization (%) Jun 78.1 78.1
9:15 Industrial Production (%) Jun 0.1 0.4
10:00 NAHB housing market indx Jul 64 64
10:00 Business Inventories (% ) May 0.4 0.5