Last Friday's jobs report meant business (bad business for low rates).  Even though Powell ultimately told us that one jobs report wouldn't fundamentally alter the risks to the economic outlook in Wednesday's congressional testimony, that wasn't enough to get bonds out of the office.  Wednesday was their least productive day of the week in terms of selling, but it was right back to business and then some on Thursday.

All told, 10yr yields moved up from 1.94 lows last Friday to 2.15 highs yesterday.  That was already enough to make this the worst week for rates since at least April, and that is based on Friday's CLOSING levels.  If we look at Thursday vs Thursday time frames, we'd have to go back farther.

Today's session was in perfect position to dog-pile on the selling spree.  There were even a few excuses to do so (weaker EU bond market overnight and another uptick in inflation data at 8:30am).  But bonds held firm at 2.15%.


Rather than view this as some heroic instance of "fighting back," the volume and liquidity profile of the day along with the inability to rally below 2.10% means we just witnessed bonds clocking out early for the week.  Traders will pick things up next week and consider extending the weakness.  On an optimistic note, I continue to believe it will require a bias in the econ data to push rates very far in either direction.  In other words, we're not necessarily doomed just because momentum shifted this week (but we could be doomed if the econ data stabilizes or improves).

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.0
100-13 : +0-06
10 YR
2.1240 : +0.0040
Pricing as of 7/12/19 6:27PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
12:20PM  :  Bonds Have Had Enough (And That's a Good Thing Today)

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Wendy Smith  :  "I would expect price improvements from some who priced earlier. But so far, only reliable Provident. ;)"
Gavin Luckman  :  "come on Green!"

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Jul 12
8:30 Producer Prices (%) Jun +0.1 0.0 0.1
8:30 Core Producer Prices YY (%)* Jun +2.3 2.2 2.3