In the day just past, the bond market finally made its first move outside of the recent consolidation range--a series of lower highs and higher lows that had been intact since Fed day on June 19th.  There were some cases to be made for underlying events to drive the trading momentum, but none of the events lined up too well with the timing.  Either way, it looks like the lighter liquidity associated with holiday-week trading made the move bigger than it otherwise might have been.

In the day ahead, bonds will digest the week's busiest day of economic data with both ADP Employment and ISM Non-manufacturing on tap in addition to a handful of other 2nd tier reports.  The first direction of consolidation breakout isn't always the market's "final answer," and in the current case, we shouldn't be surprised to see the answer change if the economic data suggests it.

2019-7-3 open

Both ADP and ISM are roughly equally equipped when it comes to market moving power.  That said, some extra momentum would be reserved for ISM simply because it comes later in the morning.  The maximum impact would be seen in the event that ISM and ADP both argue the same bond market reaction.  Under that scenario, we'd see ADP have 50-75% of its own reaction with the rest being reserved for and added onto the ISM reaction.

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.0
101-00 : +0-03
10 YR
1.9580 : -0.0190
Pricing as of 7/3/19 8:13AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Jul 03
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 1949.5
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 266.3
8:15 ADP National Employment (k)* Jun 140 27
8:30 International trade mm $ (bl) May -54.0 -50.8
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 223 227
10:00 ISM N-Mfg Bus Act * Jun 60.0 61.2
10:00 ISM N-Mfg PMI * Jun 55.9 56.9