In the day just past, bonds did an admirable job of fending off the implications of the weekend's G20 news (US/China reopening trade talks, etc).  While the news wasn't exactly a surprise, it still carried implications for higher stock prices and bond yields.  That was where things were headed in the overnight session until European bonds began rallying to all-time low yields on yet another batch of weak economic data.  US 10yr yields stayed well within their recent range.

In the day ahead, bonds will almost certainly continue to operate inside the range.  This is the only day of the week without significant economic data or events.  There are two Fed speakers on tap, but fireworks are not expected.  Speaking of that, keep in mind that markets will close early for Independence Day tomorrow and then remain fully closed on the 4th (why don't we have the holiday on the day AFTER the night where we're all up late listening to fireworks?).  Despite the early close, Wednesday is jam-packed with the biggest line-up of econ data of the week.

It's not that "a storm" is guaranteed in response to all that data, just that the chances of a storm are as high as they're going to get--especially after Friday's NFP.  At the very least, bonds are totally willing to break either side of this consolidation range, as long as the data is compelling enough.

2019-7-2 open


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-24 : +0-03
Treasuries
10 YR
2.0140 : -0.0190
Pricing as of 7/2/19 9:39AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Jul 02
9:45 ISM-New York index Jun 882.1