Bonds were perfectly unchanged to start the day after the smallest amount of overnight movement we've seen all week.  This is a palpable reminder that this week has indeed been all about coming to terms with the post-Fed range and preparing for what lies ahead.  Specifically, ever since Fed day, 10yr yields have gradually traded in a narrower and narrower pattern without ever breaking outside the Fed day range.  

Domestic data and events were of little concern to bonds today.  A modicum of selling pressure was seen at the 8:20am CME open.  It might have even continued were it not for an exceptionally weak Chicago PMI reading at 9:45am.  That ended up being the focal point of the day with yields moving quickly (though not necessarily "sharply") lower and remaining near unchanged levels for the rest of the day.  Minimal revisions to the weak preliminary reading on consumer sentiment definitely didn't hurt either.

Trump and Xi will meet at the G20 summit tomorrow.  Any potential trade-related fireworks are on hold until then.  The bond market doesn't seem to be nearly as interested as stocks in such things, but Monday could nonetheless see yields with a sizable head start or handicap depending on the nature of the headlines.  That said, no one expects trade relations to be fixed in a day.  Rate momentum in the near term faces its biggest risks and opportunities in next week's economic data.  


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-27 : -0-01
Treasuries
10 YR
2.0000 : -0.0050
Pricing as of 6/28/19 3:00PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:05AM  :  Weak Chicago PMI Helps Bonds Fight Early Weakness

Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Jun 28
8:30 Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%)* May +1.6 1.6 1.6
9:45 Chicago PMI * Jun 49.7 53.1 54.2
10:00 Consumer Inflation Expectations (1yr) (%) Jun 2.7 2.6
10:00 Consumer Sentiment (ip) Jun 98.2 98.0 97.9
10:00 Consumer Inflation Expectations (5yr) (%) Jun 2.3 2.2
Monday, Jul 01
10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI * Jun 51.0 52.1
10:00 Construction spending (%) May 0.0 0.0
Tuesday, Jul 02
9:45 ISM-New York index Jun 882.1
Wednesday, Jul 03
7:00 Mortgage Refinance Index w/e 1949.5
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 266.3
8:15 ADP National Employment (k)* Jun 140 27
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 222 227
10:00 ISM N-Mfg PMI * Jun 56.0 56.9
10:00 Factory orders mm (%) May -0.5 -0.8
Thursday, Jul 04
0:00 Independence Day *
Friday, Jul 05
8:30 Non-farm payrolls (k)* Jun 160 75
8:30 Unemployment rate mm (%)* Jun 3.6 3.6